Altcoin doomsday or rebirth? Alpha Opportunities for Alpha Altcoin in BTC Market Share Break | Capital Migration Logic of AI Agents and BTC L2 | Multiplier Effect of Stable Coin Liquidity Expansion on Altcoin Market Value

Altcoin doomsday or rebirth? The altcoin Alpha opportunity with BTC market share breaks, the crypto market is full of blood. On July 24, when Bitcoin struggled at the $117,000 mark, altcoins were experiencing a tragic massacre - PUMP plummeted by 16%, mainstream tokens such as XRP and SOL generally fell by 5%-12%, and the amount of liquidated the entire network in just 24 hours was as high as US$956 million, and 310,000 investors fell under the gun of leverage. The largest single liquidation occurred in Binance, and a BTCUSDC contract instantly evaporated US$2.96 million, while the long-term combination of ETH, HYPE and PUMP of the well-known investor "Brother Maji" has accumulated a total loss of US$8.14 million. Ironically, behind this massacre, the altcoin market (excluding stablecoins) has quietly doubled its market value since April. The Greedy Index plummeted from 59 on Monday to 41, while Bitcoin’s market share fell below the 200-day moving average—a historic turning point looming. --- 01 Bloodbathing Moment: Behind the market plunge data of leverage carnival and market differentiation, greed-driven leverage bubble is exposed. CoinGlass statistics show that 85% of the liquidated positions in the past 24 hours were long positions (US$813 million), while short positions accounted for only US$143 million. This extreme imbalance stems from the previous crazy state of the market greed index as high as 71. Investors continued to increase leverage in the upward expectations, and eventually encountered centralized liquidation during the pullback. - A cruel sample of high leverage trap: "Brother Maji"'s position has become a typical negative textbook. The PUMP, which has a heavy position, accounts for the highest proportion of losses due to subsequent increase in positions, and the current liquidation price has approached the market price (ETH $2871, PUMP $0.0023). What is even more dramatic is that a PUMP private equity investor mistakenly transferred a token worth $12.8 million to Binance to which it was not traded. When it was returned, the price of the coin was cut in half, missing the opportunity to sell $6 million - institutional risk control is also fragile in extreme market conditions. - The iceberg of altcoin differentiation appears: When most currencies plummet, some projects rise against the trend. ZORA soared 60% in a single day due to the integration of Base App tokenization technology, while AI game token Virtuals Protocol achieved a 5251% increase in the past year, with a market value of over US$1.14 billion. This differentiation confirms that the market pullback is actually a value screen: tokens that lack substantial applications or are subject to regulatory pressure (such as XRP falling 9.4% due to SEC litigation risks) were first sold, while projects that implement technology or ecological innovation were protected by funds. Table: Statistics of cryptocurrency market liquidation data from July 23 to 24 | Category | Filing amount | Proportion | Typical events | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From a technical perspective, the daily line of Bitcoin has formed a "wedge-shaped convergence" pattern, with US$117,000 becoming a watershed for long and short positions. If it falls effectively, it may trigger a deep pullback of more than 10%; if it breaks through $120,000, it will need to wait for macro catalysts such as the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Although Ethereum once fell to $3,500, the giant whale increased its holdings of 40,591 ETH (about $148 million) against the trend, pushing it to quickly recover $3,600 - indicating that institutions' confidence in core assets has not yet been eliminated. Deeper pressure comes from regulation and macroeconomics: - Policy sensitive period arrives: On July 30, the White House will release a digital asset report, and the passage of the US GENIUS Act (National Stablecoin Innovation Guidelines Act) has reshape the stablecoin regulatory framework. The bill requires stablecoins to comply with reserve and redemption rules, which, while increasing compliance costs, clears obstacles for traditional institutions to enter. - Chain reaction of the dollar system shakes: Coinbase analyst David Duong pointed out that global trade protectionism and the US double deficit are shaking the dollar's reserve currency status. If central banks diversify their reserves, Bitcoin may receive $1.2 trillion in incremental funds as a "sovereign neutral asset" - which explains why BTC performs better than altcoins in the pullback. The signal of capital rotation is also critical. The ETH/BTC transaction volume ratio exceeded 1.0, indicating that capital is migrating to Ethereum and related ecosystems (such as Solana and Base chains). If the market value of stablecoins exceeds US$2 trillion as the US Treasury Secretary predicts, it will drive exponential growth in the usage of underlying chains such as Ethereum - this is the long-term fuel for the altcoin ecosystem. 03 The illusion of copycat season: The tearing between technical indicators and market reality The call for "the copycat season is coming" has been heard recently, but the data reveals the cruel truth. Although 71% of Binance futures trading volume comes from altcoins and more than 32,000 BTC enters the exchange (hints on profit-taking and altcoin rotation), there are still doubts about the key indicators for measuring the copycat season: - The total market value of altcoins accounts for only 38%, which is below the 45% bull market threshold; - The monthly increase of mainstream tokens such as SOL is only 20-40%, lacking 3-5 times outbreak cases; - The Fear Greed Index 72 is in the rational range and has not reached the level of retail investors' fanaticism. The real copycat season has never started when retail investors flock. History shows that the last round of copycat season (2023-2024) experienced a 400-day low fluctuation before the launch. Although the current altcoin market value exchange rate (altcoin/BTC) has reached the bottom range, the bottom is often accompanied by a plunge and washout before entering the main upward trend. Table: Comparison of anti-fall altcoins and plunge currencies (July 23-24) | Category | Representative currency | Rises and losses | Reasons | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AI and Game Integration Track: Virtuals Protocol, as a typical representative, creates a model of AI agents combining with gamified environments to drive prices to rise by 5,251% year-on-year. The current RSI 61.2 shows that it has not been overbought yet. The Bollinger channel expansion indicates an increase in volatility. If it breaks through the $1.87 resistance level, it is expected to challenge the all-time high of $5.07. - Meme Coin's Community Resilience: Although Dogwifhat (WIF) on the Solana chain fell 80% from its high, the price of $0.967 is still higher than the Bollinger Channel mid-track, and RSI 52.94 completed an overbought reset. Its combination with NFT and games gives continuous communication potential, and if market sentiment picks up, it may return to $2.50. - Infrastructure layer breakthrough: Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) is Bitcoin’s first Layer-2 solution, activates BTC’s trillion-dollar sleeping capital at a Solana-level speed. The pre-sale raised $4.1 million, and its SVM architecture supports nearly zero transaction fees, which is in line with the institutional expansion of demand for BTC DeFi. The brighter regulation also gives birth to winners. XRP soared to $3.45 after Ripple settled its lawsuit with the US SEC, with a surge in market value of $100 billion. The GENIUS Act paves the way for its ecological stablecoin RLUSD - each transaction of the currency will accelerate the deflation of XRP, forming a spiral of reduced supply and demand growth. 05 Future Path: The technical cornerstone of the $3.7 trillion journey, the altcoin market is building a rare technological form and brewing an epic market. The total market value chart of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH shows that the "cup handle pattern" since 2021 is close to taking shape. Currently, it is accumulating below the $1.7 trillion resistance, and once it breaks through, it will trigger huge buying. According to Titan of Crypto analysis, the target position is aimed at $3.7 trillion - there is 117% upside than the current price. This expectation is supported by on-chain behavior: - Giant Whale bought Ethereum at the bottom during the plunge, and purchased US$148 million in ETH in a single transaction; - The expansion of stablecoin market value provides liquidity reserves for altcoins; - Bitcoin's dominance fell below the 200-day moving average, and if it remains low, it will replicate the trend of altcoins outperforming BTC in 2021. However, late August may become a change of inventory. Analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that the ALT/ETH trading pair continues to weaken, suggesting that Ethereum has strongly suppressed small-cap currencies in recent days. With XRP hitting a record high, the altcoin exchange rate against Bitcoin has bottomed out in June, and this round of market ended at the latest at the end of August. 06 Investor strategy: Pyramid configuration and event-driven trading face a high-volatility market, a strategy that is both defensive and offensive must be adopted: - Pyramid position management: 50% of the bottom layer is configured with BTC/ETH core assets, 30% of the middle layer is deployed with mainstream altcoins such as SOL/ADA, and 20% of the top layer is involved in high-volatility small-cap projects (such as AI tokens or Layer-2 tokens). - Key price anchoring: BTC needs to maintain the support level of $118,000, and ETH needs to remain above $3,800. If it loses, it will trigger risk control and reduce positions. - Event-driven Opportunities: Focus on the July 30 White House Digital Assets Report and September Fed Rate Resolution. When expectations of interest rate cuts heat up, priority will be given to increasing holdings of stablecoin underlying chains (such as Ethereum) and compliant stablecoin-related projects (such as XRP Ecosystem RLUSD). History will not be repeated simply, but it always sways the same rhyme. Just as a giant whale left a message on the chain: "400 days of waiting for a 400% increase - the golden law of the crypto market has never failed." When the leverage liquidation washed away all the floating chips, when the regulatory framework settled, the altcoin's $3.7 trillion journey may have just begun. --- The market will always give birth to newborns in blood. In the ashes of US$956 million in liquidated stocks, the total market value of altcoins quietly builds a cup handle form - a technical figure brewing since 2021. If the $1.7 trillion mark breaks through, the $3.7 trillion journey will officially begin. In this capital migration, AI agents, Bitcoin Layer-2, and compliant stablecoins have become the spark of new narratives. And history will eventually repeat: the real copycat season will always explode after the last leveraged bull falls. #cryptocurrency #cryptonews #crypto