XRP Price Could Capture 14% of SWIFT's Market Share in Five Years, Targeting $100 to $500 Price Range

This comment from the executive at XRP APEX 2025 event in Singapore on June 11 has stirred the XRP community's speculations on how it could impact the valuation of XRP.

The crypto market never fails to surprise. This time, it’s Ripple (XRP) that has the community buzzing with an ambitious goal: to capture 14% of SWIFT’s market share in five years.

This comment from the executive at XRP APEX 2025 event in Singapore on June 11 has sparked discussion among the XRP community about how it could impact the valuation of XRP. Trading at $2.32 as of June 11, 2025, XRP’s market cap stands at $136.82 billion. So, if Ripple’s XRP captures 14% of SWIFT’s market share, how high could XRP price rise?

How XRP Can Capture SWIFT’s $5 Trillion Daily Market Share?

According to the latest SWIFT data, the payments giant processes 44.8 million FIN messages daily, facilitating roughly $5 trillion in transactions a day. Annually, SWIFT processes $1.25 quadrillion.

If Ripple’s XRP could capture 14% of SWIFT’s market share, it would amount to $700 billion volume on a daily basis. But is this possible and what impact could it have on XRP price?

Although SWIFT has been the backbone of global cross-border payments since 1973, its legacy infrastructure is criticized for slow settlement times and high costs due to intermediaries. Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, also added, “Think less about messaging… and more about liquidity. If you’re driving all the liquidity—that’s good for XRP.”

Using Ripple’s key product – On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) that leverages XRP token for settlements on the XRP Ledger, Ripple aims to finalize transactions in seconds, with a 0.1% error rate compared to SWIFT’s 6%. This efficiency is a key aspect that could help Ripple capture 14% of SWIFT’s volume, equating to $750 billion daily, and drive significant XRP price potential.

XRP Price If It Captures 14% of SWIFT’s Market Share

For Ripple to capture 14% of SWIFT’s market share in five years, multiple factors need to be considered. But for the sake of argument, let’s ignore everything and also consider the pure impact of Ripple’s XRP helping leverage $700 billion on a daily basis and estimate the impact on its price.

According to Grok AI, capturing 14% of SWIFT’s $5 trillion daily volume would require substantial XRP adoption. With a circulating supply of 58.82 billion XRP and a total supply of 99.99 billion, absorbing $700 billion daily would demand a massive increase in XRP’s market cap.

Grok notes that, “even 1% of SWIFT’s volume ($50 billion daily) could push XRP’s price to $35.80, assuming sufficient liquidity.” By scaling this to the Ripple CEO’s “14% market share,” it could easily propel “XRP price in the $100-$500 range,” says Grok. The LLM clearly notes that this is “speculative and depends on adoption rates.”

However, it has not stopped the XRP community from being enthusiastic about the recent comments from the Ripple executive. Posts on X reflect this optimism, with users like @TheCryptoSquire noting, “XRP isn’t sleeping. It’s loading,” projecting a 2.8% annual growth to reach the 14% target provided by Garlinghouse. These are unverified claims and should be treated cautiously.

While Grok provides a broad perspective, DeepSeek AI delves deeper, presenting base, conservative and bull cases to determine the impact on XRP price if it captures 14% of SWIFT’s market share. The LLM calculates the velocity of the token using the current daily volume of $2.67B and $132B market capitalization. Based on velocity, DeepSeek calculates that there is a 262x increase needed in utility volume to handle the $700 billion daily captured market share. Here are the three price projections from DeepSeek:

DeepSeek concludes by adding, “The math shows ambition, but execution risk is extreme. At current prices, XRP offers asymmetric upside IF Ripple delivers on liquidity infrastructure. Technical traders should watch the $2.50 monthly close level for confirmation of institutional accumulation.”

Key Factors Driving XRP Price Potential

As discussed above, there are a few key factors that would influence how quickly and high XRP price could rise if it is facilitating 14% of SWIFT’s transactions. These include:

The rate at which institutional investors adopt XRP will be critical for driving up the price.

If there is a shortfall in liquidity, it could limit the volume of transactions XRP can handle, which would