03/19 update below. This post was originally published on March 18

Bitcoin has been stuck in holding pattern in recent weeks, struggling to regain momentum after “panic selling” raised fears of a major bitcoin price crash.

Crypto traders are closely watching for any sign that the Federal Reserve could be preparing to step in and support markets, following a period of turbulence sparked by Donald Trump’s trade policies and the rising threat of recession.

Now, BitMex cofounder Arthur Hayes has predicted the Fed could begin cutting interest rates by the second half of the year, an action that could help to prop up markets and pour fuel on the bitcoin price.

“When there’s financial distress, they always print money. It doesn’t matter on the political leanings,” Hayes, who went onto launch the Maelstrom investment company, said in a wide-ranging interview with Bitcoin News.

The bitcoin price and wider crypto market has followed stock markets lower in recent weeks as traders react to U.S. president Donald Trump’s on again-off again international trade tariffs and the rising risk of recession.

Earlier this week, Trump said he was planning to introduce new tariffs on goods from Mexico in a bid to deter illegal immigration across the U.S. border.

The move threatens to escalate the trade war with China, which began last year with Trump imposing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with the world’s second largest economy.

China responded with retaliatory tariffs and the two superpowers have been locked in a trade standoff ever since.

The U.S. president has said he wants to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 summit in Japan to discuss the trade issues further.

But the threat of Trump’s trade policies has weighed heavily on markets in recent months, with traders pricing in an increasing probability of a U.S. recession later this year.

The bitcoin price and crypto market are closely correlated with stock markets, which tend to perform poorly during periods of economic downturn.

As such, any sign that the Fed could be stepping in to support the economy and markets could be closely watched by crypto traders.

The Fed is currently in the midst of a cycle of raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet, a process known as quantitative tightening.

This policy is designed to cool the economy and prevent inflation.

However, it has also been blamed for stifling economic growth and making it more difficult for businesses to invest and hire.

Some economists have argued that the Fed should be cutting interest rates and increasing its balance sheet in order to support the economy during a period of global uncertainty.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but traders will be closely listening for any hints that the central bank could be preparing to shift course.

A move by the Fed to cut interest rates or end quantitative tightening could help to boost the bitcoin price, crypto and stock markets.