The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025

The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty

The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, the analyst said that while a recession is not probable, a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment where risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies suffer. Puckrin said:

"The U.S. administration is trying to cut federal jobs and spending to balance the budget, which can lead to recessions as a side effect. But President Trump is not actively trying to engineer a recession."

Macroeconomic uncertainty is the primary cause of the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to better opportunities in European capital markets and seek an escape from the economic uncertainty currently plaguing US markets, Puckrin told Cointelegraph.

Trade war fears drag the price of Bitcoin down

President Trump's tariffs on US trading partners sent a shockwave through the crypto markets, leading to a steep decline in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin's BTCUSD price from the Jan. 20 high of over $109,000.

The tariffs and fears of a prolonged trade war also reoriented market sentiment toward extreme fear — a sharp contrast from the euphoric highs felt after the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in November 2025 and the January 20 inauguration.

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will feel the pressure of tariffs until April 2025.

If countries can successfully negotiate an end to the tariffs or the Trump administration softens its stance then markets will recover, the analyst added.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently said that BTC formed a price bottom in March 2025, as US President Donald Trump softened the rhetoric around trade tariffs — signaling a potential price reversal.