Will Trump Deliver on His Crypto Promises?

After successfully choosing the winner of the US election, Polymarket traders are now attempting to predict where he will follow through on his promises.

President Donald Trump made several promises to the Bitcoin and crypto community during his presidential run. As he prepares to be sworn in for a second term, Polymarket traders are attempting to predict which of these promises will be fulfilled.

According to Polymarket data, there are high expectations for pardons for the January 6 defendants and Ross Ulbricht, as well as possible support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Markets suggest that pardons and selected crypto policies carry the strongest likelihood. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants in Trump’s first 100 days and a 92% chance for pardons issued on Day 1.

Ross Ulbricht, who Trump vowed to free on day one, has an 83% chance of receiving clemency in the first 100 days.

There is also a strong indication that TikTok may remain operational despite prior legislation mandating its sale or ban, an outcome with a 92% likelihood by the end of the first week.

Another high-chance scenario involves more than 40 executive orders on Day 1, evaluated at 64%.

Crypto-oriented moves rank among the top concerns for traders, with over $2 million traded, though their likelihood is lower. A strategic Bitcoin reserve holds only a 56% probability in the first 100 days, and a Day 1 executive order on digital assets, addressing de-banking and fair value accounting, stands at 36%.

However, more likely than either of these crypto reforms is the declassifying of the JFK assassination files (75%) by April 29. It is also more likely (66%) that the Gulf of Mexico could be renamed the “Gulf of America.”

Some events appear less certain. Ending the Ukraine conflict within 90 days holds a 34% probability. Polymarket also assigns just a 31% likelihood that new 25% tariffs on Mexico or Canada will be enacted. A potential acquisition of Greenland has a 20% chance, and the possibility of a national abortion ban is assessed at 20%.

While some of these items, such as pardons or many executive orders, may occur with little procedural delay, others, including foreign policy shifts or territorial acquisitions, often involve extensive negotiations.

Ultimately, Polymarket traders appear more bullish on a pro-crypto administration than ever before. While they are unconvinced that major reform will come within the first 100 days, sentiment is clearly more positive than that of any previous administration.

Moreover, outcomes that fail to materialize quickly may still resurface later in Trump’s term. It is important to note that Polymarket data is fluid, and odds may shift if official statements or early actions reveal a different policy focus.

The pace of executive activity can be fast during the first week of a new term, so any early signals may influence how participants wager on each scenario.

These markets open a new avenue for those interested in U.S. politics as Polymarket data moves fast on any breaking news, making it an increasingly helpful barometer for policy change.