TRUMP coin has rallied 73% on gala dinner excitement, but once supply starts unlocking in July, will holders face steeper risks than they realize?

The Trump-themed meme coin, Official Trump (TRUMP), has captured the market's attention after delivering a remarkable rally over the past few days.

The Trump-themed meme coin, Official Trump (TRUMP), has captured the market’s attention with a stunning comeback, rallying over 73% in the past week to reach a price of $15.47 on April 23.

The token, launched on Solana (SOL) in January, had fallen to as low as $7.14 earlier this month before staging a strong recovery, which was further fueled by an announcement of a formal dinner for the top 220 TRUMP holders with President Donald Trump.

The lavish event, set to take place on May 22 at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C., is expected to bring together the largest holders of the meme coin for an exclusive evening with the 47th President of the U.S.

The dinner invitation is part of a broader initiative by the TRUMP token team to engage the community and reward those who have shown sustained support for the project.

The initiative is also designed to generate buzz around the token and drive new interest in the project. The team is hoping to attract a diverse range of participants, highlighting the global reach of the TRUMP token.

Those who fail to make the top 220 will receive a limited-edition Trump-themed non-fungible token (NFT) as compensation, according to a clause in the official terms.

The project’s official portal is displaying the current leaderboard of token holders, which is being constantly updated. As of April 25, the top spot belongs to a cold wallet labeled “SUN,” reportedly associated with Justin Sun, founder of the TRON (TRX) blockchain, with holdings exceeding 1.17 million tokens, valued at over $14 million.

Sun’s involvement is consistent with his previous support for pro-Trump crypto initiatives, including his advisory role at the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial DeFi project.

The second and third positions are held by wallets with the identifiers “CASE” and “MeCo,” respectively. While MeCo holds a larger number of tokens than CASE, it ranks lower due to the project’s use of time-weighted metrics, which give more weight to long-term holdings over recent accumulation.

According to the project’s official documentation, the initial 800 million tokens were set to unlock gradually over a three-year period, with an express goal of avoiding any sudden, large sell-offs that could destabilize the token.

The first stage of the unlock was to commence on April 18 with the release of 40 million tokens, followed by a daily issuance of 205,480 tokens until July 18.

However, the team postponed further unlocks by 90 days, which helps preserve the circulating supply at 200 million tokens and alleviates concerns about a sudden influx of new supply triggering selloff pressure.

This move is also expected to buy the project more time to build out its community and ecosystem, which could support the long-term sustainability of the TRUMP token.

At current market prices, the fully diluted valuation of the TRUMP coin, calculated across all one billion tokens, stands at approximately $13.35 billion.

Since only 20% of the supply is actively traded, the actual market capitalization is much lower at around $2.67 billion.

In comparison, the cryptocurrency with the largest market cap, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently priced at around $94,000, having gained more than 11% over the past seven days as it approaches the $100,000 mark.

The sharp rise in TRUMP’s price is supported by a token design that deliberately restricts supply and concentrates control among two Trump-affiliated entities: CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC.

Both entities are linked to the Trump Organization and together control 80% of the total token supply. Typically, such heavy insider control would raise concerns about future dumping. However, structural and reputational factors serve as deterrents.

The holdings are subject to a multi-year lockup, and any premature selling could provoke backlash from both the TRUMP community and broader crypto investors.

Rather than relying on direct token sales, the affiliated entities generate income through trading activity. At launch, they seeded 100 million tokens, equal to 10% of the total supply, into a liquidity pool on Meteora, a decentralized exchange on Solana where TRUMP is actively traded.

This liquidity pool allows buyers and sellers to transact smoothly without large price slippage and simultaneously generates fees for liquidity providers. Each trade on Meteora incurs a fee, a portion of which flows back to the wallets controlled by CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight.

This model has proven to be highly lucrative. According to estimates from Reuters, as of January 30, trading fees alone had already generated between $86 million and $100 million for Trump-affiliated