Solana (SOL) price up 4.3% as open interest nears all-time highs, spot ETF approval odds jump to 91%

SOL futures open interest is up 12%, signaling strong institutional interest.

Solana futures open interest rose 12% over the last 24 hours to reach $7.54 billion, according to data from DeBank. This is a 20% increase from the previous week and sits just 12% below the peak of $8.57 billion reached on January 19.

The large increase in aggregate futures open interest reflects strong adoption of SOL derivatives, suggesting rising institutional interest but also introduces potential risks.

Despite the higher risk of forced liquidations in the event of a SOL price correction, derivatives data points to further upside potential.

Solana’s primary decentralized application metric started to display strength in April. The network’s total value locked (TVL), which measures the amount deposited in its smart contracts, rose to its highest level since June 2022 at 56.8 million SOL, worth about $9.1 billion.

There are other factors that influence Solana’s increase in value and TVL. To confirm whether DApp use has effectively increased, investors should also analyze the number of active addresses within the ecosystem.

The number of Solana network addresses interacting with decentralized applications jumped by 38.5% over the last 24 hours to 2.7 million. Positive performance is seen among the top five DApps, with their unique active wallets (UAWs) rising by 77%-300% as shown in the chart below.

This suggests increased interest in the layer-1 ecosystem, lifting demand for SOL.

The likelihood of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025 dropped to 91% on Wednesday, according to Polymarket.

Multiple spot Solana ETF applications from asset management giants like VanEck, Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise and Canary Capital signal robust demand for regulated SOL investment vehicles.

The SEC is expected to make a decision on the applications by the end of the year, with approval unlocking institutional capital and amplifying demand for SOL.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the SEC could “act early” on Solana and staking ETF filings, placing the approval odds at 90%.

However, the SEC rejected several bitcoin and ether ETF filings in 2021 due to a lack of protection for investors from market manipulation and fraud.

The SEC could quickly approve filings from asset management giants like BlackRock and Vanguard, given their experience and the existing approval of bitcoin and ether futures ETFs.

In March, the SEC postponed the decision on several spot crypto ETF filings, including those from VanEck, Grayscale and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, to November 13.

The SEC also delayed the decision on several ether ETF filings from asset management giants like Invesco and WisdomTree to December 8.

The SEC's decision to approve or reject these ETFs will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Solana price has formed a bull flag chart pattern on the weekly chart, as shown below.

A bull flag pattern is a bullish setup that forms after the price consolidates inside a down-sloping range following a sharp price rise.

Bull flags typically resolve after the price breaks above the upper trendline and rise by as much as the previous uptrend’s height. This puts the upper target for SOL price at $335, or a 103% increase from the current price.

The weekly RSI is moving above the midline and has increased to 51 this week from 36 on March 31, indicating increasing bullish momentum.

MagLev Futures analyst said that the SOLUSD pair must first flip the resistance at $190 into new support to ensure a sustained recovery.