Smart Money Trimming SOL USD? How's Solana Looking beneath the Hood

While Solana has emerged as retail's favorite blockchain over the past year, its run could be over as smart money jeets SOL USD for HYPE.

While Solana has emerged as retail’s favorite blockchain over the past year, its run could be over as smart money jeets SOL USD for HYPE.

Solana’s spring rally just collided with a wall of institutional repositioning

On-chain data pulled at 10:00 UTC shows a net 1.2 million SOL (≈ $175 million) leaving exchange cold wallets in 48 hours, and trading desks are whispering the same source: a single multi-strategy fund.

That flow matches a public call from market maker Flood (@ThinkingUSD), who flagged the desk’s exit from SOL and simultaneous build in HYPE, Hyperliquid’s native governance token.

Why it matters: Solana is still the headline Layer-1 growth story—TVL has clawed back to $9.4 billion, stable-coin float is up 145% QoQ, and developer telemetry from Milk Road shows Solana added more net devs in 2024 than Ethereum.

But smart money is trimming exposure as the chain inches toward its psychological $10 billion TVL milestone.

Liquidity tells the story. Over the last 24 hours, SOL USD spot volume hit $2.3 billion, but half of that was aggressive sells, pushing price through the 50-day MA at $148.50 and leaving RSI south of 45.

By contrast, the HYPE/USDT volume on Hyperliquid exploded 50% to $200 million, with the price hitting a new local high of $0.89.

Hyperliquid’s TVL just crossed $400 million (+12% week-on-week), underscoring the fund’s bet on niche DeFi micro-structure rather than broad Layer-1 beta.

There are some upshots, developers are still pouring in, 5.4 million daily transactions, Metamask’s Solana integration live, Raydium and Jupiter capturing $4.6 billion in combined TVL: but the question traders are asking now is whether congestion flashbacks will derail bullish momentum if volumes spike like January.

The last time SOL TVL hit eight figures, the network’s failure rate jumped to 40%, Coinbase paused withdrawals, and arbitrage desks retreated.

(Source)

In short, fundamentals point up, order flow turns, and volatility is back on the tape.

Below, I break down the key support zones, liquidity pockets, and upside targets in a full SOL / USD price map—plus how to trade the fund rotation without getting front-run.

While HYPE price soars, Solana is slipping into an acutely bearish pattern on a technical level, with SOL currently trading at a market price of $169 (representing a 24-hour change of -3.67%).

This arrives as SOL USD is rejected from a double-rejection at the upper trendline, spelling disaster in the local trading channel and heralding the dreaded ‘Golden McDonalds’ pattern that signals a bearish outlook to prevail in the short-term frame.

(SOLUSDT)

However, a small foothold could save the day as the drop leaves SOL USD now in a direct retest of lower trendline support—a critical moment that, if well defended by Solana bulls, could prime a coiled spring launch to the upside.

Some positivity surrounds this possibility, not least of all the RSI, which is showing reduced bearish divergence amid the decline at a near-neutral 54.

But it’s not withstanding that Solana double-rejected the 200DMA – a technical downturn is likely, especially as Trump once again damages crypto fundamentals with further trade tariff doom-bringer messages.

Every time Solana spikes in usage, the cracks begin to show. From wallet outages and validator stress to gas surges and DeFi blackouts, January’s congestion debacle reminded the market of one thing: Solana has scale, but no overflow valve.

With institutional ETF filings stacking up and mobile-first dApp expansion underway through the Solana Seeker phone, that pressure is building again.

Enter Solaxy, the first proper Layer-2 solution purpose-built for Solana. While the base chain barrels toward another $10 billion TVL peak, Solaxy lays the foundation to handle what comes next.

The infrastructure is already shipping. A Hyperlane-powered bridge connects Solaxy to the Solana mainnet. The block explorer is live. The Igniter protocol, which allows $SOLX holders to launch native rollup tokens, is operational. Ethereum compatibility is next.

This is not a vaporware roadmap; it’s an active build-out, happening in real time, with a serious and credible dev team.

Solaxy isn’t some future dream. It’s a functioning Layer-2 ecosystem in the making, ready to defuse the time bomb of congestion before it detonates again.

But here’s the window: the $SOLX pres