The role of Bitcoin amid economic turmoil

Market analysis by Inky Cho, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness. If you hold a certain amount of Bitcoin or whether you're planning to buy some soon

The role of Bitcoin amid economic turmoil

Market analysis by Inky Cho, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness

If you hold a certain amount of Bitcoin or whether you’re planning to buy some soon, you must be wondering what impact the US tariffs have on the coveted crypto’s price.

Undoubtedly, the return of President Donald Trump to the White House arguably marks the most schismatic moment in US politics and geopolitics.

Trump’s reappointment was followed by a deluge of draconic measures, including eerie promises of mass deportations and a series of controversial decisions emanating from Elon Musk, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has been keeping traders and investors on a string.

The pledge to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 20% on imported goods from China in his first 100 days in office, made Trump one of the most controversial political figures of the 21st century.

But “tariffs” is not the only “most beautiful word in the English dictionary,” according to the US President. The word “cryptocurrency” also carries particular significance, as he promised to enact a series of deregulation measures aimed at bolstering Bitcoin and altcoins’ value. To that end, he signed an executive order that serves as the foundation for a so-called “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “Digital Asset Stockpile,” which will include Bitcoin alongside other cryptocurrencies.

The funds will be held with digital currencies forfeited to the federal government as part of legal proceedings. According to David Sacks, the White House AI and crypto “czar,” this reserve will be “a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency,” which he likened to the Kentucky military base that stores a significant amount of US gold assets.

Amid a wave of polarizing reaction from crypto enthusiasts, some of whom criticized the government for not taking a bolder stance, while others questioned the transparency of the process.

Sacks has reportedly ordered a full account of the government’s crypto asset reserves, which he estimated at 200,000 Bitcoin alone. But is that enough to turn Bitcoin into a hedge? The answer to this question is more complex.

A tariff-led Bitcoin bull run in disguise The President’s relationship with the crypto space is not entirely free of any conflict of interest. The launch of his name meme-coins $TRUMP and $MELANIA just before inauguration day spited the industry, which through the voice of Danny Scott, CEO of CoinCorner, retorted, "Trump's comments about not knowing much about the coin back up my opinion that he is making a mockery of the industry. It's a stunt."

Against this hazy background, the US tariffs cast a somewhat more positive light on the potential of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Assuming that Donald Trump completes his tariffs’ mandate, immigration policies, and tax cuts, inflation could rise rapidly.

However, this type of inflation will not be a positive sign at all. For example, the cost of German motor vehicles in the US would soar, rushing Americans to open their wallets before the tariffs are enforced. This upsurge in consumer spending could temporarily drive retail sales higher, creating an artificial sense of economic growth.

The early signs of this were seen in December 2024, when the consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 2.9%, backed by a lower core inflation. Cryptocurrencies, which unlike safe-haven gold, have a growth component that makes them inherently more sensitive to economic shifts such as inflation spikes and tariffs. And Bitcoin is no exception.

Driven up by 2% as the US CPI data sent mixed inflation signals across markets, Bitcoin surged $1,500 to $98,000 in 24 hours in December 2024.

Because of its nature, many investors and traders consider Bitcoin a commodity. From this perspective, it’s worth exploring the effect of the recently vehiculated US tariffs on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Near-term fears and the rush for cash Near-term, tariffs may hurt Bitcoin's and the crypto market's performance, precisely because of its inherent growth-driven characteristic. This is evident in its recent price action. As fear pervades the financial markets, Bitcoin hit a 4-month low amid massive crypto market sell-off.

The crypto market reached a staggering $1 billion in liquidations in the space of 24 hours (between March 10 and March 11), making many traders run for their money. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, have been the biggest losers of this downturn.

The main reason behind this mind-blowing price drop is the large movement of cryptocurrency by key players. Mt. Gox