Raydium Drops 66% From Its Peak as the Bullish Cycle Appears to Be Over

Raydium was one of the largest gains of the current market cycle, gaining from the interest in Solana and its meme coins. In January, the price peaked at $8.67 after rising 5,800%.

Raydium (RAY) has experienced a significant downturn, dropping 66% since January's peak. The recent breach of long-term support at $4.05 suggests that the bullish cycle might be coming to an end.

A five-wave upward advance (green), beginning in December 2022, is visible on the weekly time frame RAY chart, with the sub-wave count in black showing an extension in wave three. In total, the price of raydium increased by more than 5,800%.

An ascending parallel channel encloses the rise since October 2023, with the middle of this channel corresponding to the peak of wave five at $8.70. This stage is likely where wave five will terminate.

The price of raydium has decreased by 66% since its peak, reaching a new yearly low of $2.06 today, a clear indication that the bullish cycle in Raydium is over.

The next nearest support level, if the slide persists, will be $1.70.

Bearish technical signs are present. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50 and generated a double bearish divergence (orange, dashed). The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is currently decreasing after making a bearish cross.

As a result, the weekly time frame indicates that the RAY trend is negative and new lows are forthcoming.

There is no chance of a bullish trend reversal on the RAY chart for the daily time frame. The price of RAY dropped below the horizontal support line of $4.05. It also broke below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement on February 24.

Since the price often recovers at the 0.618 level if the loss is corrective, this confirmed that the bear market has begun.

At $2.20, an ascending support trend line would provide short-term respite. However, technical indicators show no optimistic signs. On the other hand, the MACD and RSI are decreasing and have not generated any bullish divergences.

Therefore, it is possible that the price of RAY will continue to decrease until it hits the long-term horizontal support region at $1.80.

With an estimated $180 million in revenue for 2024, Raydium is the largest decentralized exchange on Solana despite its decrease.

Reports of Pumpfun choosing to no longer use Raydium and switching to their own Automated Market Maker (AMM) have made headlines, with less than 35% of Raydium's volume over the last two weeks coming from Pumpfun.

Since its peak, the price of raydium has dropped by more than 66%, and it does not appear to be abating.

The RAY price is likely in a long-term downward trend and the decline could last until at least $1.80.