Polymarket Now Gives XRP ETF Approval Odds of 81% in 2025

This increase follows the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) acknowledgment of multiple XRP ETF applications, including those from Grayscale and 21Shares.

The odds of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in 2025 have risen sharply following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) acknowledgment of several applications, including those from Grayscale and 21Shares.

According to betting markets like Polymarket, the probability of SEC approval for an XRP ETF by December 31, 2025, now stands at 81%, a significant increase from 70% in January. The odds are particularly high on Polymarket when considering the time frame up to July 31, 2025, with bets nearly evenly split between approval and disapproval.

However, it's important to note that while the SEC has taken the first step in evaluating these ETF applications, approval is not guaranteed.

The SEC has up to 240 days to either approve or reject these ETF applications, as per Section 19(b)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act.

If approved, the crypto community will be watching closely, especially given the recent launches of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have signaled a shift in the regulatory stance toward digital assets.

Several market analysts have expressed varying opinions on the matter. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has previously shown skepticism, stating that an XRP ETF will not be approved until Ripple's legal battles with the SEC are fully settled.

On the other hand, new regulatory developments and the SEC's willingness to accept multiple XRP ETF applications could potentially alter the landscape.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hogan, partner at Hogan & Hogan, believes that while swift approval is possible, a fully tradable XRP ETF may take longer to materialize.

“Yes, the approval can happen that fast, but then the S-1 has to be approved, etc. So, think of it more like 8-12 months,” Hogan explained.

XRP's price has reacted positively to the news, surging over 10% in the past two days. The cryptocurrency broke past its $2.50 resistance level, reaching a high of $2.78.

According to market analysis, a successful breakout above $3.40 could trigger a more substantial rally.

Crypto strategist EGRAG Crypto highlighted key resistance levels in XRP's price movement, identifying $2.62, $2.75, $2.94, and $3.22, with $3.40 being a crucial pivot point.

“A sustained close above $3.40 would mark the first time XRP has reached a new all-time high in over seven years,” EGRAG noted.

Despite the growing enthusiasm, Weiss Crypto, a financial rating agency, has raised concerns about XRP's long-term viability.

The firm argues that regulatory shifts alone do not necessarily create a strong use case for the asset.

“Warning: Don't assume that regulatory approval creates a strong use case for an asset. XRP is a case in point. It's had years of regulatory drama, yet its use case remains weak. Ultimately, investors should prioritize assets with strong use cases,” Weiss Crypto stated.

On the other hand, others like Ryan Selkis, founder of Messari, suggest that stablecoins have already secured the victory in terms of mainstream crypto adoption.

“Stablecoins won. The legislation will soon codify that victory in the U.S. XRP is drawing dead, as stablecoins grew two orders of magnitude during the SEC battles,” Selkis remarked.

However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz countered this statement, emphasizing the importance of utility in the evolving crypto landscape.

“I think we're going to see a world where utility wins. I don't think stablecoins are dead. I think they're going to be a huge part of the financial system, but I think there's going to be room for other things that have a use case,” Novogratz noted.

As multiple XRP ETF applications continue to be under review and confidence in approval rises, XRP's market performance and investor sentiment both remain strong.

The SEC's decision in the coming months will be critical in determining whether XRP joins Bitcoin and Ethereum in securing a spot ETF. If approved, we can expect to see increased institutional adoption and a potential price surge beyond its current resistance levels.