2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Round of 32 Predictions

Updated predictions for every game in the Second Round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

The Second Round of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament continues this weekend, and updated predictions for every game have arrived, based on new simulations conducted early Saturday morning—hours before the Round of 32 begins.

The headline coming out of the first round?

Duke is the ACC’s last team standing, marking the first time since 1975 that only one ACC school has advanced past the opening round. Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who returned from an ankle injury, looked every bit the future lottery pick, scoring 14 points in a blowout win over Mount St. Mary’s. With the rest of the ACC wiped out early—including losses by North Carolina, Clemson, and Louisville—it’s now entirely up to Flagg and the Blue Devils to carry the conference flag.

Other major storylines from the first round include

This weekend's second-round matchups promise more drama, with several close games setting the scene for upsets.

Here’s a look at the full predictions and TV schedule for the second round, with win probabilities from the latest simulations via Dimers.com.

Saturday, March 22 – Second Round Predictions and Schedule

This matchup pits 4-seed Purdue, rolling through Fairleigh Dickinson in Round 1, against 12-seed McNeese, who pulled off a huge upset over Texas A&M.

At +650 to win the whole tournament, McNeese is largely unfancied but does have a 26% chance to spring another upset here, according to Dimers' latest model.

The surprising aspect is that despite the strong opening round, in which they beat Temple and had a +10.5 point differential, Rick Pitino's St. John's side are actually slight favorites with a 76% win probability.

This is a meeting of the 4-vs-5 seeds, and while Texas A&M were ultimately dispatched by McNeese, they did manage to keep things close, losing by nine.

Considering that 12-seed McNeese have a 24% chance to win this game, which may come as no surprise given their surprising run, it's clear that this matchup is far closer than the seedings suggest.

This game should see 3-seed Texas Tech continue their run, with the latest simulations giving them a 76% predicted win chance.

After a close sweat against Northern Iowa, the 9-seed Creighton have just a 23% shot at pulling the upset here and continuing their run to the Sweet 13.

This game pits 3-seed Wisconsin, who cruised through Weber State, against 6-seed BYU, who pulled off a huge upset over Texas.

The latest simulations from Dimers give the 3-seed a 58% edge in one of Saturday's tighter matchups.

This matchup sees 1-seed Houston, who are still undefeated at 30-0, favored over 8-seed Gonzaga, who pulled off a huge upset over Penn State.

At +1600 to win the whole tournament, Gonzaga have just a 29% chance to spring another upset here.

This game pits 2-seed Tennessee, who are still undefeated at 29-0, against 7-seed UCLA, who pulled off a huge upset over Pittsburgh.

The latest simulations from Dimers give the 2-seed a 64% likelihood of victory.

Sunday, March 23 – Second Round Predictions and Schedule

This matchup pits 1-seed Florida, who are still undefeated at 29-0, against 8-seed UConn, who pulled off a huge upset over New Mexico State.

At +1400 to win the whole tournament, UConn have just a 17% chance to spring another upset here.

The latest simulations from Dimers give the 1-seed a huge edge in this one.

This game should see 9-seed Baylor continue their run, with the latest simulations giving them just a 13% predicted win chance.

This game pits 5-seed Illinois, who cruised through Winthrop, against 4-seed Kentucky, who pulled off a huge upset over Michigan State.

At +1300 to win the whole tournament, Kentucky have a 45% chance to spring another upset here.

This matchup sees 2-seed Alabama, who are still undefeated at 29-0, favored over Saint Mary's, who pulled off a huge upset over Seton Hall.

At +1500 to win the whole tournament, Saint Mary's have just a 31% chance to spring another upset here.

This game pits 4-seed Maryland, who cruised through Iona, against 12-seed Colorado State, who pulled off