Messari 2025 Crypto Outlook: The macro environment will drive Bitcoin up, and the Meme craze will continue

Messari's 190-page report consists of three parts: the current state of cryptocurrencies (macro-environment, institutional status, where are the users) + track analysis (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Alt L1s +infra, DeFi, AlxCrypto, DePin, Consumer, CeFi) + analyst choice awards.

1. Author NingNing's report is from Messari.

2. Messari's report consists of three parts: the current state of cryptocurrencies (macro-environment, institutional status, where are the users) + track analysis (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Alt L1s +infra, DeFi, AlxCrypto, DePin, Consumer, CeFi) + analyst choice awards.

3. Messari's core analysis frameworks include: block space economics, ecological map valuation framework, narrative economics, Schumpeter's innovation theory, etc.

4. After reviewing major events in the macro environment in 2024, Messari predicted the changing trends in the US economic environment and crypto regulation in 2025.

5. But in any case, it will be friendlier than Biden's encryption policy.

6. In 2024, the main battlefield for institutions will be the application and operation of Bitcoin/ETH spot ETFs and the promotion of RWA (mainly U.S. debt tokenization) business.

7. The launch of the stablecoin PYUSD by Paypal and the acquisition of the stablecoin company Bridge by Stripe have blurred the boundaries between financial technology, payment and cryptocurrency.

8. In terms of investment, the institution adopted a barbell strategy consisting of Al and DePin, and the total financing of these two sectors increased by about 100% and 300% respectively compared with last year.

9. Incoming AI and crypto czar David Sacks is an investor in Solana, Helium, Render, and Hivemapper. Expect the US government to seriously consider working with the DePin project in 2025.

10. Messari cited a report from A16Z, saying that among the 220 million active addresses, approximately 30 million to 60 million are real monthly active users.

11. Users are mainly distributed in Phantom wallet, stablecoin, Telegram app, Polymark prediction market, Base and Hyperliquid.

12. Messari believes that the growth of on-chain users in 25 years will come more from the product strength of Dapps, rather than the Bitcoin ATH news events or the legendary stories of MeMe coins getting rich. Therefore, its very bullish chain abstraction and aggregation front-end adoption in 25 years.