A key Bitcoin (BTC) metric signaled a potential shift

A key Bitcoin (BTC) metric signaled a potential shift in its positioning after BTC's long-term holder realized

A key Bitcoin (BTC) metric signaled a potential shift in its positioning as BTC’s long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) surpassed $18 billion for the first time since September 2024.

Data from CryptoQuant showed that this cohort had been aggressively accumulating, which previously signaled the BTC bottom in Q3 2024. The LTH realized cap tracks the BTC cost basis of investors holding their allocation for 155 days or more. A sharp increase in this metric would suggest that these long-term holders are in an accumulation phase, which is typically bullish.

Bitcoin LTH net position realized cap. Source: CryptoQuant

As seen in the chart above, a spike in this metric usually precedes bullish rallies. Most recently, the LTH realized cap reached $18 billion on Sept. 8, 2024, after which Bitcoin registered 100% returns over the next few months.

Another key confluence that matches the current bottom setup with September 2024 is the significant drop in open interest. BTC’s OI reached an all-time high of $39 billion in July but dropped by 25% by September. Similarly, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% between Dec. 18 and April 8,

Bitcoin open interest. Source: CoinGlass

The concurrent rise in LTH Realized Cap and a leverage wipeout strongly support the likelihood of a Bitcoin price bottom. However, Bitcoin’s open interest has surged by nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, suggesting that the price action following this spike could offer better directional bias in the coming days.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.