Inflation Cools, but Not Cold Enough for the Fed

Bitcoin and Ethereum surged following the CPI surprise, as traders speculated on a Fed pivot, but the broader inflation narrative remains uncertain.

The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report delivered a surprise, with annual inflation coming in lower than expected and slipping below forecasts for the first time in months.

As a result, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices spiked in response to the unexpected CPI data, which traders saw as increasing the chances of a Federal Reserve pivot. However, despite the brief rally in crypto, the broader inflation narrative remains uncertain, and the market isn't necessarily out of the woods yet.

Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from the report, how crypto reacted, and why there are still concerns for the market.

Inflation Cools, But Not Cold Enough for the Fed

The April CPI figures showed a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, falling short of the 2.4% projection by economists in a Bloomberg poll and marking the lowest reading since February 2021.

On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI ticked up 0.2%, slower than March's pace and also lower than economists' estimates of 0.3% for both measures.

This marks the lowest annual inflation print in over two years, which is a positive development, but it's a cautious one. The Fed's 2% inflation target is still out of reach, and with sticky inflation remaining a key focus for markets, any pivot by the Fed is still uncertain.

However, any sign of cooling inflation could be enough to provide some relief for risk assets, such as crypto.

The Trump Tariff Factor

While the CPI figures came in lower than expected, it's worth noting that this may partly reflect recent moves by President Trump to roll back tariffs. For instance, tariffs on Chinese tech were slashed from 145% to 30%, and a 90-day pause was announced on tariffs on solar panels and washing machines.

Economists suggest that the full impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation is yet to be realized, as importers likely front-ran purchases to get goods into the country before the tariffs took effect. This could result in a surge in inflation later in the year.

As the Fed president pointed out, they are now in "wait-and-see" mode to assess the unfolding economic trends and adjust their monetary policy accordingly.

"In reality, the data for April is likely to be largely unaffected by President Trump's announcements on Liberation Day," said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, in an email.

"This is because exemptions were granted for goods that had left exporting countries before April 2, and because consumers and businesses rushed to front-run tariffs in February and March. As such, both the Fed and global investors will still need to be a bit more patient before they can properly assess the impact of the trade uncertainty on consumer prices."

Crypto Spikes, Shorts Liquidated

Ahead of the crucial CPI data release, crypto prices traded cautiously, with Bitcoin hovering around the $102,000 level as everyone braced for the impact of the report.

Following the release of the April CPI figures, crypto prices responded quickly, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both showing strong gains.

After the CPI reading, Bitcoin surged to around $103,645, while Ethereum edged higher to trade at approximately $2,503.

The move was modest but significant, as traders saw the CPI miss as increasing the chances of the Fed pivoting on interest rates.

The swift price spike in crypto is exactly what would be expected if there was a sudden shift in the Fed's stance, which could have major implications for the market.

However, it's important to note that the real inflation fight isn't over yet, and there are still concerns that could affect the market in the coming months.

Stay tuned for more updates on the latest crypto and market trends.

The post Surprising CPI fuels Bitcoin price spike as traders speculate on Fed pivot appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The post Surprising CPI fuels Bitcoin price spike as traders speculate on Fed pivot first appeared on Benzinga.