Hayes' outlook for BTC

Some macroeconomic factors (primarily easing inflation and increased global liquidity) would play in favor of Bitcoin in the medium term.

Some macroeconomic factors (mainly the easing of inflation and increased global liquidity) will play in favor of Bitcoin in the medium term.

This is according to Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and a point of reference for the crypto community, who has once again spoken out on social media, stating that the chances of seeing a new ATH for BTC at around $110k are greater than a new drop towards $76k.

BTC’s performance over the past two weeks appears to be fueling new optimism among investors, and the weekly close above $86k leaves room for further upside after a difficult Q1 2025.

“I bet BTC will hit $110k before retesting $76.5k,” said Hayes, who is optimistic about the chances of this scenario unfolding, adding that the Fed is changing its policy on Quantitative Tightening (QT), and tariffs will not be critical due to “transitory inflation”.

And if BTC really does manage to reach $110k, according to Hayes, then “we shouldn’t look back until it reaches $250k”.

I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k.

Y? The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter cause "transitory inflation". JAYPOW told me so.

I’ll expound on that in my next essay, that’s the TLDR for your TikTok peanut brain.

The transition from a policy of quantitative tightening (QT) to one of quantitative easing (QE) would be fundamental, as the Fed would become involved in a new capital injection through the purchase of bonds to lower interest rates.

The QT phase, i.e. the reduction of the balance sheet by selling bonds, as already seen last week, would not yet be interrupted for other analysts, but there is a change of approach in the air.

A new phase of QE would be well-received by investors, also in light of past events. In 2020, for example, this dynamic caused an increase in the price of BTC of over 1,000%.

Having always treated the crypto community well with his bullish forecasts, as reported in recent months, Hayes had also warned his followers of a possible sharp correction in BTC at the beginning of 2025. In this new phase, however, the conditions for a new rise are being created.