Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: towards a drop in BTC this weekend?

For Geoff Kendrick, global director of digital assets research for Standard Chartered, the current geopolitical situation would suggest a drop in the price

As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, with Israeli airstrikes hitting Beirut, ground forces entering southern Lebanon and Iran launching airstrikes on Israel, markets are paying close attention. According to Geoff Kendrick, global director of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, these tensions are likely to push Bitcoin (BTC) below the $60,000 mark by the weekend.

However, the analyst also urges investors to view any potential downturn as a buying opportunity. Interestingly, Polymarket is showing a slight shift in the chances of Donald Trump beating Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential elections on Nov. 5. While the current vice president has been narrowly favored for several weeks, the trend on the decentralized prediction market platform has reversed. Trump’s chances of winning have increased by about 1%, while those of Harris have decreased.

In total, the Democratic candidate’s chances of winning the election now stand at 49%, while Trump’s have risen to 50%.

This shift in electoral trend is also having an impact on the price of BTC, suggesting an increase in the coming months if Trump were to win, Kendrick noted:

“This creates an interesting circularity for Bitcoin. Geopolitical concerns may depress prices, but those same concerns appear to boost Trump's chances, potentially improving Bitcoin's post-election outlook.”

Many analysts have suggested that a Trump victory in the U.S. elections would be bullish for cryptocurrencies, while a Harris win would be bearish for Bitcoin, according to these same analysts. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research seems to agree with this sentiment but adds that there could be great opportunities for investors:

“A Harris victory would likely trigger an initial drop in prices, but we expect investors to buy the dips as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front is still to come.”

Lastly, the analyst also highlighted that recent market activity showed a significant build-up in call options positions on Bitcoin. This growing demand for call options suggests that many traders are betting on upward price movements, which could be contributing to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

“The amount of open interest on the call option for the Dec. 27 expiration at a strike price of $80,000 on Derebit rose by 1,300 Bitcoins in the last two days,” he noted.