By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Markets seem bullish ahead of the jobs report due later Friday, with bitcoin (BTC) rising toward $97,000 after stocks rose for an eighth straight day on Thursday.

Markets are cautiously bullish ahead of the jobs report due later Friday, with bitcoin (BTC) rising toward $97,000 after stocks rose for an eighth straight day on Thursday.

That gave the S&P 500 its longest rally since August as investors grew more confident that trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are cooling.

Still, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is little changed over the last 24 hours with the drop in first-quarter GDP pointing to economic strain from the trade war.

The pessimists' camp is also pricing in four Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year — one more than they'd priced in before the reciprocal tariffs were announced.

But personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred measure of inflation came in above forecasts, which limits the central bank's room for easing, said James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares.

Today's payrolls data remains a “critical piece of the puzzle,” he said.

“When the Fed eventually decides to cut rates, it is likely to do so in a knee-jerk and forceful manner — reacting to a significant deterioration in economic conditions rather than being proactive. Such a dramatic policy shift could act as a catalyst for a significant breakout rally in bitcoin, as investors seek alternative stores of value amid aggressive monetary easing,” Butterfill said.

That policy shift could align with bitcoin's historical performance. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has seen an average gain of 7.52% in May, according to CoinGlass data. And it's not alone: ether (ETH), which has been significantly underperforming BTC, has posted an average gain of 27.3% in May since 2016, the best-performing month for the Ethereum blockchain's token.

“Investor confidence is gradually returning to crypto markets following a volatile start to the year, with April seeing a rebound across majors as tariff-driven macro fears eased,” said Vijay Chetty, CEO of Eclipse. Growing regulatory clarity is an “underappreciated catalyst that will set the stage for broader institutional use cases,” Chetty added. Stay alert!

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