Ethereum (ETH) Holders Are Back in Profit, Increasing the Chances of a Rally to $3,000 and Beyond

Ethereum holders are back in profit, increasing chances for a rally to $3,000 and beyond.

Key Points

* Ethereum is showing strength as it trades above its realized price, and chances of a rally to $3,000 and beyond are increasing.

* A large portion of ether holders could sell at $2,800, where 2.27 million ETH could unlock, posing a risk factor for the crypto’s bull market.

As Ether (ETH) price surged above $2,700 on May 14, its value moved higher than its realized price, which implies that the average holder of ETH is “now back in an unrealized profit,” noted Glassnode.

Data from Glassnode showed that the realized price, which is the price at which coins last changed hands, is currently at $1,900. At the time of writing, ETH trades at $2,676.06.

This signals that a large portion of ETH holders are no longer in a loss-making trade. According to the on-chain analytics firm, this brings “meaningful financial relief for many holders, signaling a bullish outlook.”

During the early phase of a rally, holders in profit usually provide momentum by holding firm, thereby attracting new investors into the market.

Further analysis of the cost basis of active market participants indicated the “strength of this upward move” as the price moved above its True Market Mean, or the Active-Investor Price, at $2,400. This indicates fresh capital inflows into the market at higher prices.

As Cointelegraph reported, holding above $2,400 will be crucial to ensure a potential $3,000 retest.

Despite Ether’s recent outperformance, Glassnode analysts noted that the Active Realized Price still sits overhead around $2,900 and remains a key level that must be “decisively reclaimed to support continued improvement in investor confidence” in the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

The market intelligence firm added:

“A return above APR would suggest that new buyers are willing to pay a premium for coins, which could propel a steeper ascent. Conversely, selling pressure might arise if the price sinks below the Active Cost Basis.”

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades also said that ETH price must "convincingly break" out of the $2,400-$2,600 range before rising higher to confront high-timeframe resistance between $2,800 and $2,850.

According to Ether’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 2.27 million ETH at an average cost basis of $2,767, creating a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling Ether’s upward momentum.

From a technical perspective, ETH must flip the $3,000 resistance level into support to target higher highs above $4,000.

But first, the ETH/USD pair must close above the $2,600-$2,800 range, where the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) currently sit. ETH price dropped below this level in February, driven by risk-off sentiment following Trump’s tariff measures.

One positive catalyst for the bulls could be continued demand from spot Ethereum ETFs. Ether ETFs registered $100.7 million in net inflows in the last three days, per Farside Investors’ data.

Meanwhile, the bears will attempt to keep the $2,600 resistance in place to increase the likelihood of pulling the price lower. The immediate target is below the $2,400 level, or the 200-day SMA.

Below $2,400, the next key area of interest remains between $2,200 and the psychological level at $2,000. Reaching $1,800 would erase all the gains made after the Pectra upgrade.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.