Ether (ETH) Market Consensus: Adoption Will Be Slow and Modest Compared to Bitcoin (BTC) ETF Adoption

We are aligned with the market consensus that the adoption out of gate here will likely be relatively slow and modest compared to the bitcoin ETF adoption

Wall Street is largely optimistic about ether's debut on the New York Stock Exchange, but some analysts say the cryptocurrency's price movements may not be as dramatic as those seen during the launch of bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.

Ether futures began trading on the NYSE Monday under the ticker "ETH." The launch of ether-linked exchange-traded funds is also expected this week, with the VanEck Ether Strategy ETF (NYSE Arca: ETHE) and ProShares Ether ETF (NYSE Arca: ETHP) slated to start trading Tuesday.

"We are aligned with the market consensus that the adoption out of gate here will likely be relatively slow and modest compared to the bitcoin ETF adoption," Devin Ryan, an analyst at JMP Securities, told CoinDesk TV in an interview Monday.

"Part of that is the bitcoin ETF adoption is in the early innings – a lot of the largest pools of money for that ETF have not even been turned on yet," he added.

The launch of bitcoin ETFs in January saw the cryptocurrency surge to a record high of nearly $45,000. However, the price quickly dropped by 20% before recovering and climbing to a new all-time high.

"Ether could be volatile in the meantime," Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev said in an email to CoinDesk.

"We saw something similar happen earlier this year with the launch of bitcoin ETFs, where bitcoin surged to a record before the price dropped by 20% and then advanced to another new high," he added.

“Much like the bitcoin ETF, it will take time for inflows into the ETH ETF to create enough supply shock to significantly move the markets," said Ben Kurland, CEO at crypto research platform DYOR, in an email to CoinDesk.

"However, the decision by President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race does introduce some uncertainty into the market," he noted.

"Investors [are] waiting for more concrete developments about [Vice President Kamala] Harris, her stance on crypto, and the likelihood of her taking back any ground in the polls," Kurland added.

Trenchev also highlighted the impact of the U.S. presidential election on cryptocurrency markets.

"Bitcoin's drop from recent highs reflects the sudden arrival of Kamala Harris into the U.S. presidential election, which adds uncertainty to a race which seemed to tilt in favor of Donald Trump and his new pro-crypto stance," he said in the email.