As the crypto market enters a new month with renewed optimism

As the crypto market enters a new month with renewed optimism, TRON (TRX) is quietly positioning itself for a potential breakout.

TRON (TRX) price has been quietly showing strength as the crypto market enters a new month with renewed optimism. While meme coins and AI tokens have captured much of the spotlight, TRX has been steadily consolidating in a tight range and supported by key moving averages. This signals an accumulation phase that may soon evolve into a strong price movement.

As we begin May 2025, TRX is calmly positioned just above $0.24. A glance at the daily and hourly charts reveals a build-up that could trigger a larger move, potentially pushing above the stubborn $0.26 resistance which has capped rallies in recent weeks.

The Structure Is Holding: What Does The Chart Say?

At the moment, TRX price is trading at approximately $0.248. On the daily chart, we can see that TRX is conveniently positioned above its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which are currently around $0.238 and $0.230 respectively. The 20-day SMA is also curling upward and sits close to $0.246, acting as near-term support. The 200-day SMA is seen at $0.23, which reinforces the longer-term bullish structure.

On the hourly chart, TRX has begun a slow climb above its 20 and 50 SMAs, with price bouncing cleanly off the 100 and 200-hour SMAs. The ADL (Accumulation/Distribution Line) has also been trending upward, which hints at positive net buying pressure — a sign that traders are accumulating TRX on dips.

A significant technical trigger to watch is a possible golden cross — when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA. While TRX price is not quite there yet, it’s inching closer. In past instances, this crossover has been a strong bullish indicator, often preceding sharp rallies. If we see good volume accompany such a crossover, we might see a breakout toward $0.27–$0.30.

In the short term, there’s resistance at $0.252 and $0.259, while support levels are at $0.238 and then $0.226. A clean move above the $0.26 level could trigger momentum traders to pile in.

Volume, ADL, And Buyer Strength

The Accumulation/Distribution Line on both timeframes confirms an increase in accumulation behavior — especially as TRON price bounces from key moving averages. The hourly chart shows a consistent rise in the ADL over the past three sessions, which aligns with the slight price uptick and narrowing of the moving average ribbon. This bullish convergence suggests buyer strength is quietly building.

If TRX manages to break above $0.26 on decent volume, the next target zone could be between $0.28 and $0.30 — a potential gain of roughly 8% to 13%. However, if TRX fails to hold $0.238 and dips below $0.226, we might see bearish pressure push it back to the $0.21–$0.22 range.

Let’s calculate a sample return scenario:

If you invest $1,000 at $0.248 and TRX hits $0.29:

Return = ($0.29 / $0.248) - 1 = ~16.9% gain

Final value = $1,000 × 1.169 = $1,169

That’s a solid profit potential for a relatively low-volatility large-cap altcoin.

Is A Breakout About to Happen Or Is It Another Fakeout?

TRON’s price action has been stable and tightly coiled — often a sign of accumulation before a breakout. With supportive technicals including rising moving averages, bullish ADL momentum, and proximity to a golden cross, May could finally be the breakout month for TRX.

However, traders should remain cautious and watch for volume confirmation before entering aggressively. Keep an eye on price levels like $0.252, $0.26, and $0.268 to set alerts for potential breakout trades.