Coinbase (COIN) Is Expected to Report Quarterly Results After the Bell on Thursday

Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) is set to report its second-quarter earnings after the market close on Thursday.

Investors are expecting a modest reaction to the report, with one analysis of options prices suggesting the stock could move 6.5% in either direction on Friday. Such a move would put the stock to a two-month high of $217.50 or down to around $191.

A move of 6.5% from Thursday’s opening price would put the stock to a two-month high of about $217.50 or down to around $191. At the same time, the implied volatility on the stock is running quite high.

Coinbase stock is forecast to move about 6.5% in either direction on Friday, according to an analysis of options prices on Thursday morning. A move of that magnitude could put the stock to a two-month high of about $217.50 or down to around $191.

At the same time, the implied volatility on the stock is running quite high. For instance, the 20-day historical volatility on the stock stands at 5.6%, while the 3-month implied volatility from Thursday morning’s options prices is at 40%. Historical volatility measures how wildly a stock has moved over a period of time, while implied volatility is a measure of what options prices suggest the stock’s volatility will be over the next period of time.

Usually, when a stock’s implied volatility is at a historical high, it tends to move less than what options prices suggest. Moreover, the chances of the stock moving more than 10% on Friday are slim, as the probability of such a move is just 1.1%, according to a analysis of a one-standard-deviation move from options prices.

Coinbase stock has seen an average post-earnings move of more than 9% over the last four quarters, according to an analysis of previous earnings reactions. Shares slumped 8% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings in February and 15% following its third-quarter results in October. The last time Coinbase stock rose after earnings was a year ago, when the company said first-quarter revenue soared as investors plowed into newly approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysts are split in their assessment of Coinbase’s stock, with six of the 12 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha assigning shares a “buy” rating and the other six advising that investors hold.

The average price target for the stock is $262.42, implying upside of about 33%. Price targets range from $169 at Barclays to $400 at Canaccord and Citizens.

Coinbase shares were up more than 5% in recent trading as the price of bitcoin approached $100,000 for the first time since February. The stock has lost more than 15% of its value so far this year.