Celestia [TIA] Jumps 11% After Breaking Out of Falling Wedge, Challenging $2.93 Resistance

Celestia [TIA] jumped 11% in a day after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern, typically a bullish reversal setup.

Celestia [TIA] price jumped 11% in a day after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern, typically a bullish reversal setup.

This technical formation began around $3.20, a key resistance level that had previously stalled price action twice, providing early momentum indication.

However, a pure trend reversal may require a spot price rising adequately past the resistance level of $3.20 to give a clean Change of Character (CHoCH). This would open the door for a $5 target.

Volume increased on strong participation, seen through transaction count and P/F ratio, both adding support to the move.

But the Stochastic RSI was entering overbought territory, which was just the second level that caused even reversals and sustained rallies.

Source: TradingView

In fact, the last overbought print in March marked a local top. So, while bullish signals emerge, caution remains necessary.

On top of that, the MACD Histogram flipped positive after crossovers just below the zero line, adding to short-term upside potential.

The test of the $3.70-$4.00 supply zone may resume if TIA stays above $2.80. If TIA broke below support at $2.80, it could send the price back to the wedge support at $2.40.

Oscillators and trend signals leaned on the bullish side, but we may see a CHoCH over $3.20 to confirm the reversal and invalidate prior bearish structure.

TIA transaction count and P/F ratio

Worth noting, Celestia’s weekly transactions rose to 402k, which led to 19.2M over the last year as of press time.

Such a steady increase in network activity indicated increased usage and participation, suggesting investor confidence and price appreciation if continued.

Spiking transactions may be associated with higher demand for block space, potentially setting TIA up for increased price pressure.

Although, the trend may lose impact, unless accompanied by a simultaneous increase in unique users or value transferred.

In the event that activity continues to lessen, it may indicate weakening momentum.

For now, this supports cautious optimism, but any ecosystem stagnation could stall price momentum.

Celestia protocol, seeing the increasing P/F Ratios of 11,751.2x for circulating supply and 20,939.0x on a fully diluted basis, per Token Terminal.

Source: Token Terminal

This divergence suggested strong expectations of future growth, or speculative interest. The circulating P/F offered a short-term investor sentiment, while the fully diluted had a long-term valuation assumption.

If protocol fee growth accelerates, these premiums may be justified. Otherwise, TIA risks a valuation correction.

Unmet expectations could trigger reversion. These high P/F ratios suggest bullish conviction—but also expose the price to sentiment-driven volatility.