Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis: MACD Crossover and $1B ADA Outflow Hint at Breakout to $0.82

Cardano climbs 3% as bullish patterns form on the 4-hour chart. A MACD crossover and a $1B ADA outflow from exchanges hint at a breakout to $0.82.

Cardano price showed strength on Friday, rebounding by nearly 3% to trade above the key $0.725 support. As Bitcoin price flirted with the $106,000 mark, several altcoins displayed bullish trends.

One such token was Cardano, which is trading above a crucial support zone. As the 50% Fib level provided some resistance, a breakout above this zone could propel ADA towards the next resistance at $0.82.

Cardano Price Trend: Short-Term Channel Breakout

As the price action on the 4-hour chart suggests, Cardano has been forming higher lows since last month, highlighting a bullish trend. This trend is visualized by an ascending trend line connecting the rising low points.

In the short term, Cardano’s price trend showcases a falling channel pattern as the altcoin slides toward the support trend line. Interestingly, a similar price action occurred in early May, with the formation of a falling wedge. However, a bullish crossover between the MACD and signal lines led to a breakout from that wedge pattern.

Now, with another bounce from within the declining channel, the MACD and signal lines again indicate a positive crossover. This suggests a possible breakout rally as Cardano approaches the overhead trend line.

However, the 4-hour RSI is flat and sits slightly below the midpoint, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum. The doji candle that has formed near the resistance line further attests to this.

As Cardano trades close to the upper boundary, a potential breakout could push the price to $0.82, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This move would represent an upside potential of more than 10% upon breakout.

On the downside, critical support for Cardano remains at $0.725, which was tested on May 19. A close below this level could lead to a test of the lower boundary near the $0.70 psychological mark.

Will a Negative Supply Shock Boost Demand for Cardano?

Adding to the bullish outlook, recent data from TabTools highlighted a massive outflow of Cardano from centralized exchanges.

According to the crypto analytics platform, nearly $1 billion (932M) worth of ADA was withdrawn from exchanges in 2025, contributing to the bullish momentum that may drive the next move toward the all-time high of $3.10.

As a significant amount of ADA exits CEXs, a surge in demand could drive the next leg of Cardano’s bull run.

BREAKING:

Nearly $1 billion worth of Cardano $ADA ($932M) has been withdrawn from centralized exchanges since the beginning of 2025.

The last time outflows approached this magnitude was in 2021, during ADA’s climb to its $3.10 all-time high. pic.twitter.com/YoL7baTr7u

— TapTools (@TapTools) May 19, 2025