Cardano's ADA: Bullish Momentum Building or Just a Mirage?

Is Cardano (ADA) finally showing signs of life, or is it just another false dawn? We dissect the latest price movements and ETF buzz.

Cardano's ADA: Bullish Momentum Building or Just a Mirage?

Cardano (ADA) is at a crossroads. After a rough patch, there are glimmers of hope, but can it sustain the upward pressure? Let's dive into what's happening with ADA and whether this 'bullish momentum' is the real deal.

ADA's Green Shoots: A Weekly Win

After a string of red weeks, ADA finally printed a green candle. A minor win, but a win nonetheless. The price is hovering around the $0.48 mark, a key support level that's held firm throughout 2023 and into 2024. The RSI is also showing signs of exhaustion in selling pressure, curving slightly upward.

Analyst Av_Sebastian notes that reclaiming $0.70 would carry significant technical weight and could decisively flip market sentiment. Until then, ADA remains range-bound, battling in the $0.49–$0.52 area.

Sentiment Check: Still in the Dumps?

Despite the recent green candle, underlying concerns persist. ADA is still down over 80% from its highs, with developer activity and community engagement noticeably quieter. The ecosystem appears to be lagging behind others in attracting liquidity and users.

However, a decisive break above $0.70, especially with strong volume, could act as a catalyst for change.

Social Standing: Still in the Game

Even with price weakness and sentiment challenges, Cardano remains relevant. ADA still ranks sixth in overall social dominance, holding 2.5% of total attention across tracked platforms. While down from its 2021-2022 peak, it shows Cardano is still in the conversation.

The slowdown in on-chain activity isn't unique to Cardano. Most chains are facing a demand drought. The focus now is on building real utility and staying resilient.

Fractal Flashback: Déjà Vu?

Cardano is once again pressing against a familiar trendline resistance. CryptoSmith points out that the current structure resembles the setup that led to a 240% rally in late 2023. If ADA breaks above this structure, key zones to watch are $0.60 and $0.70. Clearing those could re-ignite momentum towards $1.20 and potentially $2.60.

Key Support: Holding the Line at $0.50

Jesse Peralta highlights that Cardano has held its range support for a solid 77 days. The $0.50 level has been a strong base, absorbing multiple tests. If ADA continues to defend this level, a move toward $0.70 is the next logical step.

ETF Hopes: A Game Changer?

Bloomberg analysts now estimate a 90% chance of a Cardano ETF approval in 2025. This news has the crypto world buzzing, but ADA's price remains relatively stagnant. Coin Bureau and Altcoin Daily have listed ADA as a likely candidate for ETF approval, potentially leading to institutional investment.

Grayscale's filing ticks many boxes for the SEC, increasing the likelihood of approval. However, ADA's chart shows a descending triangle pattern, indicating potential bearish pressure.

If ETF Approved:

• Short-Term Target: $0.68
• Mid-Term (Q3): $0.75–$0.80
• End of 2025: $1.10 to $1.40

If ETF Delayed or Denied:

• Break Below Support: $0.50
• Next Key Level: $0.44

Final Thoughts: Keep an Eye on ADA

Cardano is at a pivotal moment. The ETF application and SEC decision in October could be a turning point. Watch the $0.60 resistance closely. Whether it's ETF news or not, remember to do your own research before diving in!