Should You Buy COIN? Coinbase (COIN) Missed Wall Street's Revenue Expectations in Q1 CY2025, but Sales Rose 24.2% YoY to $2.03B

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, but sales rose 24.2% year on year to $2.03 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.94 per share was 0.7% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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Coinbase (COIN) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:

StockStory’s Take

Coinbase’s first quarter results showcased the continued momentum of its core trading and subscription businesses, driven by factors such as international derivatives expansion and the increasing adoption of stablecoins. A significant development was the strategic acquisition of Deribit, a leading global crypto options exchange, which is crucial for consolidating Coinbase’s position in derivatives and unlocking cross-selling opportunities, particularly within the institutional client segment. CEO Brian Armstrong highlighted the company’s focused efforts to integrate spot, futures, and options trading capabilities, and he pointed to the strong growth in USDC (the U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin) balances as a key driver of recurring revenue for the company.

Looking forward, management indicated that macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility in crypto asset prices are likely to influence trading activity and revenue in the near term. CFO Alesia Haas mentioned that lower asset prices observed in the early part of the second quarter could exert pressure on blockchain and subscription revenue. However, the leadership team expressed confidence in the company’s sustainable product roadmap, ongoing international expansion plans, and the durability of its business model. They highlighted the pending regulatory milestones and new product initiatives that are positioning Coinbase for future growth.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Coinbase’s management credited the strong quarter to several factors, including advances in derivatives trading, increased utilization of stablecoins, and the company’s expansion into international markets. The revenue shortfall compared to Wall Street expectations was largely attributed to a shift in the mix of trading volume and lower-than-anticipated fee rates from institutional clients.

Drivers of Future Performance

Coinbase’s management anticipates that macroeconomic volatility and fluctuations in asset prices will have a direct impact on trading volumes and, consequently, revenues. In contrast, regulatory milestones and the launch of new products are critical for driving the company’s long-term growth.

Top Analyst Questions

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be closely monitoring the progress of Deribit’s integration into Coinbase’s derivatives platform, the level of continued USDC adoption, and the impact of new international regulatory approvals. We will also assess the effect of macroeconomic and asset price volatility on trading and subscription revenues. Additionally, our focus will be on the latest developments in key regulatory initiatives and the pace of new product rollouts, including Coinbase’s foray into business payments and on-chain lending products.

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