BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Could Skyrocket to $250,000 by the End of 2025

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, is back with another bold prediction: Bitcoin could skyrocket to $250000 by the end of 2025.

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, is known for his bold predictions, and he's not holding back in his latest analysis. This time, he's set his sights on an astounding Bitcoin price point of $250,000 by the end of 2025.

But how does he arrive at such a bullish outlook, and what might stand in the way?

Let’s break down some of the key observations and predictions.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses 4.5%: A Red Flag

According to Hayes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 4.5% is a critical threshold. It signals that the financial system is under some level of stress, as investors are demanding a higher yield to hold government bonds.

This sustained pressure could eventually push the Fed to intervene more directly, not just by adjusting interest rates but also by injecting liquidity into the banking system.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently touched upon this, noting that while markets are currently functioning “fine for now,” the Fed is cognizant of liquidity risks in the periphery of the financial system. Should financial conditions deteriorate, the central bank has tools, beyond rate cuts, to respond.

This is exactly the kind of environment Hayes sees as ripe for Bitcoin to thrive in.

Trade War 2.0: Inflation and Instability

The escalating economic tension between the U.S. and China is another factor that could contribute to increased inflation and instability in traditional markets.

Both countries are set to triple tariffs on each other’s goods. The U.S. will impose a 145% tariff on items like handbags, luggage, and food from China, while China will apply a 125% tariff on American products such as vitamins and seafood.

Although there’s a 90-day window before the new tariffs fully kick in, the long-term uncertainty remains.

According to Hayes, this factor will ultimately force the Fed to intervene, further validating his thesis that Bitcoin stands to benefit.

In his view, these macroeconomic stress signals are loud and clear — and they point to one thing: accumulation time for Bitcoin.

When the Fed Prints, Bitcoin Pumps

Bitcoin has a track record of reacting positively to periods of expansive monetary policy.

Recall 2020, when the Fed responded to the pandemic with trillions in stimulus. In that year, Bitcoin soared from under $10K to nearly $70K in just over a year.

Hayes thinks we’re heading into a similar cycle. As central banks, especially the Fed, prepare to keep liquidity flowing to ease market pressures, Bitcoin could once again ride the wave.

While some might call the $250K prediction extreme, Hayes believes the math checks out — especially if inflation continues, interest rates stay elevated, and central banks are left with few options besides turning the money printer back on.

This will be a high-stakes bet on macro forces.