Bitcoin-holding public companies may be sitting on a powerful market catalyst

By Greg Cipolaro. Updated Apr 14, 2021 at 1:13 a.m. PDT.

Public companies' bitcoin-holding may be able to unlock a powerful market catalyst: untapped issuance capacity that could meaningfully raise bitcoin's (BTC) price, according to new research from NYDIG.

In a report this week, Greg Cipolaro, the firm's global head of research, notes the "dry powder" in the form of share issuance potential among bitcoin treasury companies. If these companies take advantage of their elevated equity valuations to raise new funds and buy more bitcoin, it could trigger a significant upward move in the market.

Applying a 10x "money multiplier"—a historical rule of thumb describing how capital inflows have typically influenced bitcoin's market cap—he projects a potential $42,000 per-coin price increase, or a roughly 44% jump from current levels.

This market dynamic has gained new urgency following the launch of Twenty One, a bitcoin accumulation vehicle backed by Tether, Bitfinex and Cantor Fitzgerald. Unlike other firms that have folded bitcoin into broader business models, Twenty One exists to acquire and hold bitcoin, and has already been seeded with a substantial BTC position. Its SPAC partner, Cantor Equity Partners, has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 347% since the deal was announced.

Across the sector, 69 public companies hold around $69.6 billion worth of bitcoin. Cipolaro's analysis suggests that their current stock premiums over net asset value could fund even more purchases—effectively creating a feedback loop, where equity issuance fuels BTC buying, which drives up the value of both the bitcoin and the issuer's shares.

"The implication is clear," Cipolaro concludes. "This 'dry powder' in the form of issuance capacity could have a significant upward effect on bitcoin's price. Whether or not this new capital is used for further bitcoin buying remains to be seen, but the implication is clear."

If anything, the growing interest from institutions and the performance of bitcoin-forward stocks suggest that capital markets are shifting their approach to bitcoin exposure—through balance sheets rather than just ETF flows.