Bitcoin's Uptrend Likely to Continue - But Risks Remain, Says Analyst

Macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden sees a positive outlook for Bitcoin over the next year, pointing to healthy fundamentals and supportive market conditions.

Macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin over the next year, attributing its healthy fundamentals and supportive market conditions.

Despite recent volatility, she believes the broader trend remains upward—but not without potential threats.

Alden’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow through 2025, assuming the global economy avoids major disruptions. However, her perspective cautions that unforeseen financial shocks—such as a rapid decline in global equity markets—could temporarily reverse momentum.

These rare but impactful events, often referred to as Black Swans, have the potential to lead to significant short-term losses even in strong-performing assets like Bitcoin.

While many investors continue to track Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles as a key signal for price movement, Alden argues that this narrative may be losing its dominance.

As Bitcoin matures and its market cap grows, her view is that its behavior is becoming more closely aligned with global liquidity trends than with fixed supply mechanics alone.

According to her assessment, liquidity—the availability of capital across the financial system—now plays a much larger role in shaping Bitcoin’s direction. Periods of high liquidity tend to benefit risk assets like Bitcoin, while tighter conditions may limit upside or trigger corrections, regardless of the halving schedule.

This shift reflects Bitcoin’s increasing integration into the broader financial landscape.

No longer driven solely by crypto-native factors, Alden’s view is that its price action is now heavily influenced by global macroeconomic dynamics.

As such, she expects the asset to continue performing well in the absence of major economic shocks, but she also emphasizes that investors should remain aware of external risks that could shake the system.