Bitcoin Long-Term Holder NUPL Has Returned to 0.69

On-chain data shows the profit margin of the Bitcoin long-term holders is currently the same as when BTC was still $85,000. Here's what's behind this.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) has returned to 0.69. This level was last seen in early April, when the Bitcoin price was still in the $85,000 range.

The indicator is currently charting a steeper decline despite the price remaining relatively flat. This is being attributed to the promotion of new buyers into the long-term holder group, which has diluted the unrealized gain among its members.

Bitcoin LTH NUPL Remains Positive As Average Holder Is Still In Profit

According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin LTH NUPL has remained above the zero level for the past year. This means that the long-term holders of the cryptocurrency have, on average, been in profit throughout this period.

For those unfamiliar, the NUPL indicator measures the difference between the unrealized profit and unrealized loss held by Bitcoin investors as a whole. A positive value for this metric indicates that the holders are carrying more profit than loss.

However, in the context of this current topic, the NUPL of the entire network isn't relevant, but rather that of just one segment of it: the long-term holders (LTHs).

The LTHs refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago. This group is known to be a key indicator of market trends, as they are less likely to be influenced by short-term price fluctuations.

The on-chain analytics firm shared a graph that shows the trend in the Bitcoin LTH NUPL over the past year.

As the data shows, the LTH NUPL had a huge run at the end of 2024, when the cryptocurrency noted a strong bull run, pushing the indicator into an extreme level. The market downturn this year resulted in a cool-down for the metric.

However, with the recent price recovery run, the indicator again noted a reversal, but even at its peak, it couldn't come close to touching the high from the earlier bull run.

An interesting trend has followed since this latest peak in the Bitcoin LTH NUPL. The indicator has observed a sharp retrace, despite the fact that the coin's value has only been moving flat in this window.

The metric is now sitting at 0.69, which is the same level as back at the start of April, when the cryptocurrency was still just trading around $85,000.

What's making it so that HODLer profitability is the same today despite the price being notably higher? And what's the reason for the latest decline in the metric even though the price has been going sideways?

The answer to these questions lies in what the LTH group represents. As mentioned earlier, this cohort includes investors who purchased their Bitcoin within the past 155 days.

This five-month cutoff now includes the buyers from December 2024, when the Bitcoin price hit a high of over $120,000. The promotion of these top buyers into the group has diluted the unrealized gain among its members.