Technical analysts are flagging significant risks for Bitcoin, pointing to potential drops towards $68,000 amid broader market concerns and historical patterns.
Bitcoin Faces Technical Headwinds: Analysts Eye Potential Price Drop
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a wave of cautious sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) recently slipping below key technical indicators and analysts warning of further downside. As of February 4, 2026, Bitcoin has seen a notable price drop, trading around $76,100 after a dip to $73,000. Over the past week, the digital asset is down approximately 14.8%, raising concerns among investors and analysts.
Key Technical Signals and Analyst Outlooks
Technical analysts are closely watching several indicators that suggest a potential for a continued price decline. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) on its weekly chart, a signal that has historically preceded significant drops. Pillows estimates that this could lead to a price drop towards the 200-WEMA, currently situated around $68,400.
Further adding to the bearish outlook, analyst Quinten described the current cycle as "the most disappointing" in Bitcoin's history. Charts indicate that since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin has not followed the typical upward trend seen after previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Additionally, Quinten pointed to record oversold conditions, with readings falling below those seen during the COVID-19 crash.
Deeper Corrections and Emerging Patterns
Some analysts are forecasting even more substantial corrections. BitcoinHabebe suggested a slide toward the head-and-shoulders pattern target of $60,000 could be "expected," citing macroeconomic factors. Meanwhile, 0xLanister presented an "extremely alarming picture," forecasting a potential drop to $40,000 if a head-and-shoulders pattern plays out. These views suggest that the current market downturn may have further to run.
Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment
Beyond technical analysis, macroeconomic factors are also contributing to the cautious sentiment. The easing of shutdown-related pressures in the US government was met with caution due to a new deadline for the Department of Homeland Security funding. Tensions have also risen regarding the Federal Reserve's policy stance, particularly with the nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his support of quantitative tightening (QT), which could impact the repo market and introduce abrupt stress.
The options market corroborates this cautious mood, with key indicators pointing to elevated volatility. The $75,000 level is considered a crucial psychological and technical barrier for Bitcoin. Holding above this mark could signal a chance for position rebuilding, while breaking below it could quickly turn investor sentiment defensive.
A Glimmer of Hope?
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, some experts offer a more optimistic long-term view. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the current market downturn is closer to its end than its beginning, comparing it to previous crypto winters. He notes that while the market has experienced significant declines, structural progress in regulation, institutional adoption, and tokenization continues. Similarly, Jack Yi (Yi Lihua) of Liquid Capital remains optimistic about a future bull market, predicting Ethereum could reach above $10,000 and Bitcoin surpass $200,000, suggesting that now is an opportune time to buy spot assets.
So, while the charts might be showing a bit of a scare, the crypto world keeps spinning! Keep an eye on those technical levels, but remember, the long-term vision for digital assets is still very much in play. Happy HODLing!
