Is Bitcoin's pullback over? Analysts say so, influenced by these factors!

On March 12, according to Cointelegraph, analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that Bitcoin's pullback may be over due to the impact of derivatives market, weakness in the US dollar and the contagious effect of the US budget crisis. On March 11, Bitcoin price fell to a four-month low of $76,700, after the S&P 500 fell 6% in a week.

Stock market adjustments have lowered the index to a six-month low, and investors expect an increase in the likelihood of a global recession. Although Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its all-time high of $109,350, several key indicators show that the adjustment may be over. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin has entered a bear market, but the current price trend is significantly different from the November 2021 crash.

In that crash in 2021, Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $40,560, which took 60 days. The current adjustment is more similar to the interim correction that fell 31.5% from $71,940 to $49,220 on June 7, 2024. In the early stages of the bear market at the end of 2021, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of foreign currencies, and the DXY index rose from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 in December 2021. But DXY was 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 and has since dropped to 104.

Traders believe Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the DXY index because it is primarily regarded as a risky asset rather than a hedge tool when the dollar is weak. Overall, current market conditions show no signs of investors turning to cash positions, which supports Bitcoin prices. The Bitcoin derivatives market remains stable, and even if the Bitcoin price falls, the current annualized premium for futures is still 4.5%.

Compared with the situation where the annualized premium of futures fell below 0% after the Bitcoin price collapsed on June 18, 2022, the market performance this time is significantly different. Similarly, the financing rate of Bitcoin perpetual futures is close to zero, indicating that the long and short sides have a balanced demand for leverage. Under bear market conditions, it usually leads to excessive demand for short positions, driving financing rates below zero.

Looking back at the Bitcoin price trend, before Trump took office in January this year, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $109,114, and then the price gradually fell. In February, after Bitcoin fell below $100,000, it continued to fall below $90,000, and even fell below the $80,000 mark in the trading session on February 28, setting the lowest price since November 2024. On March 3, Bitcoin returned to above the $90,000 mark, but the good times did not last long and the price fell again.

On March 7, Trump signed an executive order to establish the US strategic Bitcoin reserves, and then the price of Bitcoin began to plummet after a slight increase, and had fallen to $76,700 by March 11. But judging from multiple key indicators, this pullback is different from the previous bear market. Judging from the trend of the US dollar, its current weak trend is favorable to Bitcoin price. Compared with historical data, a 30% price pullback does not necessarily indicate the arrival of a bear market.

Moreover, Bitcoin and its derivatives market still showed some resilience during this price decline. Although there are still many uncertain factors in the current market, such as increased expectations of global recession and stock market fluctuations, based on the comprehensive judgment of these key factors affecting Bitcoin’s price, analyst Marcel Pechman believes that Bitcoin’s pullback may have ended, but the subsequent market trend still needs to continue to pay attention to changes in various factors.

Bitcoin opened a strong upward trend in 2024 due to Trump's election and related favorable policy expectations, breaking through important barriers one after another, breaking through the $100,000 mark in December, and approaching $110,000 in January 2025. However, prices have fluctuated sharply recently, which has attracted widespread attention from the market. If this pullback is really over as analysts said, then whether Bitcoin can regain its upward trend and move towards a higher price again is worth investors' close attention. After all, factors such as the stability of the derivatives market, the trend of the US dollar, and the macroeconomic environment are constantly changing.

After the Bitcoin price fell to a 4-month low on March 11, all parties in the market are paying attention to its subsequent trend. If the callback is really over, Bitcoin may gradually stabilize and launch a new round of market conditions. But there are also opinions that the market is unpredictable and the current factors supporting Bitcoin prices may change. For example, if the US dollar trend reversal or new changes in the derivatives market may affect the price of Bitcoin. Moreover, expectations of global recession are increasing and stock market volatility is intensifying, and these macro factors may also have a chain reaction to the Bitcoin market.

Judging from the past price trends of Bitcoin, its fluctuations are drastically and it is difficult to accurately predict. The plunge in 2021 is different from the current pullback, but the mid-term pullback in 2024 has similarities. This also shows that Bitcoin price is affected by the interweaving of multiple complex factors. Analysts judge that the pullback has ended based on the current derivatives market, US dollar situation, etc., but new variables may appear in the market at any time. When investors pay attention to the Bitcoin market, they need to comprehensively consider various factors and make investment decisions with caution.

Currently, Bitcoin market participants have different opinions on price trends. Some investors chose to enter the market to buy at the bottom because Bitcoin pulled back to a low level, believing that the pullback has ended and will usher in a rise in the future. But some investors are on the wait-and-see attitude, worried that there will still be uncertainty in the market and fear that prices will fall further. Market divergences also reflect the complexity of Bitcoin price trends. In the future, it will take time to give an answer to whether Bitcoin can return to the upward trend under the support of current factors, or face new downward pressure again.

Bitcoin’s price trends not only affect investors’ interests, but also affect the entire cryptocurrency market. If the Bitcoin pullback ends and starts to rise, it may drive other cryptocurrencies to follow up and boost market confidence. On the contrary, if the price falls again, it may trigger market panic and lead to an overall sluggish cryptocurrency market. Therefore, both investors and cryptocurrency industry practitioners are paying close attention to Bitcoin’s every move.

When analyzing whether the Bitcoin pullback is over, in addition to paying attention to factors such as derivatives market and US dollar trends, we also need to pay attention to changes in regulatory policies. Although Trump supports cryptocurrencies and signed relevant executive orders, there is still uncertainty in the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry. Countries around the world have different attitudes and regulatory policies towards cryptocurrencies, and policy changes may affect the Bitcoin market at any time. Therefore, by combining multiple factors, we can more comprehensively judge the price trend of Bitcoin.

Although analysts believe the Bitcoin pullback is over, the market situation is changing rapidly. It is full of suspense whether the Bitcoin price will rebound steadily or fall into volatility again. Investors need to continue to pay attention to market trends and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner. After all, in the uncertain cryptocurrency market, cautious response is an effective way to reduce risks.