Bitcoin Nears $70,000 as ETF Inflows, US Election Outlook Boost Sentiment

The cryptocurrency rose 1% before paring gains to trade little changed at $68 720 as of 11 a.m. in Singapore.

Bitcoin hovered near $68 720 on Monday, as a wave of inflows into exchange-traded funds tracking the world’s largest digital asset and optimism about the US regulatory outlook underpinned sentiment.

The cryptocurrency rose as much as 1% before paring gains. It was trading little changed as of 11 a.m. in Singapore. Smaller tokens including second-ranked Ether and top-10 coin Solana oscillated within a narrow range.

US spot-Bitcoin ETFs attracted almost $2.4 billion of net inflows in the six days through October 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The inflows come amid speculation that US crypto rules will become more favorable after the November 5 presidential election.

Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen as being pro-crypto, to the extent that Bitcoin is viewed as a so-called Trump trade. Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris has said she will champion a regulatory framework for the industry. That contrasts with the Biden administration’s broad crackdown on the sector.

The two key market themes are the elections and the global macroeconomic environment, according to David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX. The Bitcoin options market shows that “forward implied volatility is heavily clustered around the election day and somewhat subdued leading to it and some time after it,” he wrote in a note.

Bitcoin options traders are pricing in a 70% probability of a US recession by the end of next year, according to Deribit data. The world’s largest economy last entered a recession in February 2020, at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Bitcoin climbed nearly 10% in the seven days through Sunday, marking the original cryptocurrency’s best weekly performance in more than a month. ETF demand helped the token reach a record high of $73 798 in March. The rally cooled and Bitcoin last traded above $70 000 in June.