Bitcoin Faces Mini Bear Market According to 10x Research

Bitcoin is currently facing challenges in its price action, with weak technical indicators, fading momentum, and a lack of new catalysts contributing to a mini bear market.

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin is currently facing challenges in its price action, which has led to a mini bear market.

Weak technical indicators, a lack of new catalysts, and a strong resistance point at the short-term holder realized price have weighed on the cryptocurrency’s performance.

Crucially, Bitcoin is trading below its crucial trend level of $88,000, which is a key indicator for distinguishing between bull and bear market phases.

This observation is supported by on-chain data, which shows that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain momentum after stalling at $88,500 and reversing.

Moreover, the cryptocurrency remains below its 21-week moving average, a widely-used indicator for tracking long-term trends.

Chart: 10x Research

This bearish pressure is further exacerbated by the short-term holder realized price, which has acted as a strong resistance point around $93,000.

This signals that traders are exiting breakeven positions, which could hinder any attempt by bulls to push above $90,000.

Another factor contributing to the negative sentiment is the reduced activity from retail investors, especially after significant losses in meme tokens.

"The market usually sees increased retail activity during bull markets, but this year, we've seen less participation from retail traders, especially following huge losses in meme tokens like PEPE and significant drawdowns in YTD returns for retail-focused platforms such as eToro and Plus500," 10x Research stated.

The report also mentioned that funding rates remain low, indicating a lack of risk appetite in the market.

"With ETF outflows continuing for a second consecutive month and hedge funds pulling back from BTC-related trades, confidence in the market seems to be decreasing."

"Without a significant rise in funding rates, it's unlikely that Bitcoin ETFs will see strong inflows again."

In terms of the broader macroeconomic environment, while some anticipate the Federal Reserve to cut rates by June, 10x Research believes this might be delayed until September due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data.

"Ultimately, Bitcoin's price action depends on real economic action rather than speculation as the market adjusts to potential policy changes."

On the political front, despite President Trump's announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and efforts to confiscate Bitcoins to sell and use the proceeds for government programs, these initiatives lack the necessary legislative backing to massively affect market sentiment.

"It's worth noting that holding confiscated Bitcoins won't create new buying pressure. A significant portion of the recent optimism has been driven more by narrative than fundamental factors."

The firm expects Bitcoin to trade within a range of $73,000 to $94,000 in the near term, with volatility likely to remain a key feature.

"We recommend using selling options strategies to take advantage of price movements within this band. However, unless a major macroeconomic shift or a bullish catalyst emerges, the overall market outlook remains muted."

"Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a fragile market structure, confirming the mini bear market sentiment."