Bitcoin 3.15 Market Analysis: Fluctuating Upward

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around $84,000. After experiencing a significant rise from $48,888 to $110,000, the market has entered a deep adjustment phase.

Bitcoin price showed some recovery on Wednesday, trading above the $84,000 level as the cryptocurrency market attempted to stabilize following recent volatility.

Bitcoin had been hovering above the key psychological level of $70,000 in recent days, showing signs of a potential rebound. It had dropped to a low of $76,000 on Thursday, July 6, marking a significant decline from its all-time high of over $110,000, which was reached in November 2023.

The recent market downturn had led to increased risk aversion among traders, who were now focused on the immediate support levels for Bitcoin.

Key Immediate Levels to Watch

- Spot Price: $84,000

- Support: $78,000 (retest accumulation zone)

- Key Resistance: Break above $88,000 opens opportunity for additional positions on the right side

- Long Position Stop Loss: Daily close below $77,500

Trend Evolution Path

① Optimistic Scenario:

- A major trend bottom has been formed at $76,000, setting the stage for a new wave of market.

- The new wave of major upward movement is unfolding, with a long-term trend targeting $150,000.

② Conservative Scenario:

- The current rebound is viewed as a consolidation pattern.

- Anticipate the market to revisit the $70,000 area to form a bottom.

Time Window Assessment

- Previous Adjustment Cycle: 50 days

- Minimum Recovery Time: 10 days (anticipate at least 20 days for recovery after a 50-day adjustment)

- Current Rebound Days: 4 days

- Oscillation Rhythm (next two weeks):

- Anticipated Patterns:

- Stepwise upward (each breakthrough of key resistance is followed by a retest to confirm support)

- Wide-range box (repeated consolidation in the $78,000-$88,000 range)

This round's cycle target still maintains an expectation of over 20% increase, but the process will test traders' holding discipline.

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