Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million as Early as 2027, New Study Predicts

A new study predicts that Bitcoin could hit $1 million as early as 2027 as a result of daily withdrawals from liquid supply exceeding 1,000 BTC.

A new study published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management predicts that Bitcoin could hit $1 million as early as 2027.

The model is based on economic fundamentals and describes a setting whereby institutional accumulation is increasing and supply is contracting quickly—driving prices at an increasingly rapid rate.

The research paper, titled ‘A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting,’ uses a supply and demand equilibrium model built specifically off of Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule.

Unlike traditional commodities, Bitcoin is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks because it cannot increase production to meet increasing demand. This property is critical to the stability of the Bitcoin price system in the long term.

“This parameterization suggests that Bitcoin will reach USD 1M prices by early 2027 for all levels of withdrawal >1000 Bitcoin per day,” the study, written by researchers from the University of Gaithersburg and the University of Reading, concluded.

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Bitcoin could hit $1 million by early 2027, study finds

The researchers explained that at the level of daily withdrawals from circulating supply greater than 1,000 BTC, the price trajectory of Bitcoin goes hyperbolic, growing away from the adoption curves by 2028 (at which time the supply shortage will tell a different story), with only the scarcity of supply mattering.

The authors also varied the daily withdrawal rate to assess the impact on the price dynamics. At more aggressive daily withdrawal rates of 5,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC, projections over the period 2023–2033 forecast that Bitcoin would reach $2 million by 2027 and $5 million by 2031.

The researchers said such projections on the upper end of the model should not be overinterpreted. However, they added that the contextual mechanics further validate Bitcoin’s emerging position as a strategic macro-asset. As behavioral dynamics continue to move Bitcoin into long serial holders, withdrawal amounts needed for new demand will become much more price sensitive.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $84,523.85, with a total global cryptocurrency market cap of $2.64 trillion, as per Kraken’s price feed.