Does the Bitcoin halving hit all miners equally? As power costs diverge globally, can high-cost countries stay in the game?

If you're reading this, chances are you've come across some discussion regarding the Bitcoin halving and its impact on miners. As power costs vary drastically across the globe, ranging from $0.01 to $0.35 per kilowatt-hour, one question arises: Can high-cost countries like Ireland stay in the game, or will they be priced out? And what happens if mining becomes too concentrated in too few hands?

One Coin, Many Realities

While a single Bitcoin carries the same market value on paper, be it mined in Nigeria or Norway, the cost, effort, and practicality of mining that coin differ dramatically depending on location.

According to data compiled by NFT Evening, the cost to mine one Bitcoin now ranges from just above $8,000 in Ethiopia to more than $320,000 in Ireland - a nearly fortyfold difference. The code remains constant, but the realities of energy policy, currency stability, infrastructure, and local grids create sharp economic divergence.

Ethiopia stands out as the lowest-cost country in the dataset, with an average mining cost of around $8,200. There is little public narrative around mining from the region, yet its pricing makes it one of the most viable locations globally.

Ireland, on the other hand, represents the opposite end. At over $321,000 per Bitcoin, the cost makes mining economically unfeasible unless supported by external subsidies or repurposed for energy experimentation.

Other European nations, including Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands, fall into the same high-cost category, shaped by expensive power rates and dense regulatory environments.

Even countries actively promoting Bitcoin are not exempt from these pressures. El Salvador, despite its national-level support and efforts in support of adoption, faces an average mining cost above $150,000, placing it closer to high-cost jurisdictions than to resource-advantaged nations.

This disparity highlights a new kind of digital inequality. It does not stem from the protocol itself but rather from everything that surrounds it - the energy markets, the politics, and the cost of access.

The Halving Did Not Hit Everyone the Same

Bitcoin's halving is a part of the protocol. Every 210,000 blocks, the reward for mining is cut in half. This event, which happens roughly once every four years, does not require any discussion, vote, or approval.

In April 2024, the latest halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. While this change was expected, its effects were not felt equally. Depending on the country, the shift either reinforced mining strength or forced operations into retreat.

At the lower end of the cost spectrum, Ethiopia stood firm. With an average mining cost of $8,200 per BTC, the halving did not pose an existential threat. As long as electricity and hardware access remain steady, miners there can continue with relatively low risk.

Middle-tier countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan experienced mixed outcomes. Kazakhstan's average cost of $33,400 left room for profit, especially with efficient ASICs. But increasing policy restrictions and tighter regulations are starting to reduce its attractiveness as a mining hub.

High-cost nations faced the sharpest impact. In countries like Brazil and Turkey, which were already at the edge of profitability, with mining costs of $141,000 and $117,000 respectively, the halving pushed operations into unviability. Without access to heavily discounted or off-grid energy, most miners in these regions are now operating at a loss.

In the United Kingdom and South Korea, the situation is even more extreme. With average mining costs above $200,000 per BTC, the halving effectively removed these countries from the global mining equation.

In South Korea specifically, over $260,000 in electricity expenditure is now required to produce one coin. In Japan, the cost surpasses $140,000. Mining in these regions is only possible if Bitcoin's price surges well beyond current levels.

Some miners have responded by adopting new strategies. In the U.S., several have secured long-term power purchase agreements to stabilize energy costs.

Others have moved operations to countries like Paraguay and Oman, where hydropower and government incentives offer continued viability. A few have downsized or diversified into other sectors such as AI compute or general data infrastructure to remain profitable.

Even countries with pro-Bitcoin policies are not exempt from this reshuffling. El Salvador, despite its national-level push for adoption, faces an average mining cost of over $150,000, placing it closer to Germany than to low-cost countries.

The Design Assumptions Vs. Today's Mining Economics

Bitcoin was built with clarity in mind. Its software defined every rule - how