Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high after a temporary trade agreement between the United States and China

Bitcoin (BTC) set a new high of $109,400 on May 21, rising more than 26% in the past month, according to data from TradingView.

Bitcoin rose to a new all-time high of $109,400 on Monday, May 21, as a temporary trade agreement between the United States and China eased macroeconomic fears and boosted investor confidence, according to crypto market tracker, TradingView.

The top cryptocurrency set a new record high of $109,400, up more than 26% in the past month. The climb to a record high came nine days after the White House announced a 90-day trade agreement between the US and China on May 12, temporarily slashing import tariffs to 10%.

The 90-day tariff suspension and the cooperative tone in negotiations removed the risk of "sudden re-escalation," which had a significant impact on risk appetite among traditional and cryptocurrency investors, said Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs were seen as the biggest macroeconomic threat to traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets in 2025.

Bitcoin fell to a year-to-date low of $74,434 on Friday, April 7, five days after Trump announced his reciprocal import tariffs on April 2, sending shockwaves across global markets, with the S&P 500 losing more than $5 trillion in value, its largest drop to date.

Bitcoin started its recovery on Sunday, April 9, after Trump's Liberation Day marked the "climax of uncertainty" for market participants, said Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Consultancy.

Bitcoin entered May with 'near-flawless setup'

Bitcoin kicked off May with a "near-flawless setup, catalyzed by a rare alignment of geopolitical de-escalation, improving regulatory optics and macroeconomic tailwinds," said Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex exchange.

"The Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks have defused one of the primary geopolitical volatility engines of the past two years," Kooner said.

The capital rotation reflects a "maturing narrative" as "Bitcoin is no longer just a fear hedge — it’s increasingly a high-conviction risk asset in periods of macro stability," Kooner said.

Russia and Ukraine "will immediately start negotiations towards a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War," Trump said in a May 19 X post, summarizing his two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Still, funding rates need to remain neutral and open interest stable for a "consecutive setup" that may ignite a Bitcoin rally to above $114,000 to $120,000, which may be catalyzed by any "macro or regulatory spark," Kooner said.

Other analysts have predicted a Bitcoin rally to above $130,000 before the end of 2025, based on BTC's close correlation with the global money supply.

The increasing money supply may push Bitcoin's price above $132,000 before the end of the year, as investor demand is driven by the growing fiat money debasement, predicted Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.