Bitcoin (BTC) risks a “notable increase” in selling from its older investors if price rises further

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” researchers calculated that long-term holders (LTHs) are sitting on almost 350% unrealized profits.

Bitcoin (BTC) risks a “notable increase” in selling from its older investors if price rises further, onchain analytics firm Glassnode warns.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” researchers calculated that long-term holders (LTHs) are sitting on almost 350% unrealized profits.

Bitcoin sell-side odds in line for crucial test

Bitcoin at multi-month highs will tempt an increasing number of hodlers to take profits — including so-called “diamond hands.”

Using a variety of metrics to track investor profitability, Glassnode shows that aggregate LTH unrealized profits are now nearing 350% — a key historical level.

“Having established that the LTH cohort is expressing a preference to hold onto their supply, we can attempt to quantify the potential price levels required to entice them to part with their coins, and commence the next wave of profit taking,” it explains.

LTH refers to entities holding BTC for more than six months. For Glassnode, the key price area to watch for changes in their behavior is the $100,000 zone.

“Historically speaking, the Long-Term Holder cohort typically ramps up their spending pressure when the average member is holding a +350% unrealized profit margin.”

Trader: BTC price upside potential ‘looks thin’

BTC/USD reached $97,500 this week before cooling off — its highest since Feb. 21, per data from CoinMarketCap.

While more than $20,000 above its recent lows, Bitcoin is not yet putting traders in mind of a return to classic bull market behavior.

Popular trader TheKingfisher pointed to order book liquidity as one sign that sellers may yet get the better of the recovery.

“Massive wall of LONG liquidations stacked up under ~$91k. Shorts above current price ($96.6k)? Barely anything significant. At least according to derivative levels on Bitfinex. Puts up a good fight but ultimately get liquidated. Same story plays out again and again with varying levels of intensity.

This time we're seeing more decisive action by the bulls to keep pushing higher but ultimately the bears are putting up a fiercer defense. We'll see if this attempt manages to break through the OI and liquidity levels needed to continue the ascent or if the bears succeed in turning the tide and knocking price back down.” he wrote in part on X.

Glassnode meanwhile recognized the need for key resistance/support flips to materialize. It highlighted the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) and the aggregate cost basis of speculators, known as short-term holders (STHs).

“The price has recently surged above both of these pricing models, and is now attempting to consolidate within this zone. This highlights a noteworthy degree of strength behind this upwards swing.”