Bitcoin [BTC] Reaches a Critical Juncture

Hovering around the $92,500 mark, BTC now finds itself at the center of a standoff between bullish momentum and bearish resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is now at a critical juncture, hovering around the $92,500 mark as bullish momentum faces off against bearish resistance.

After a recent pullback from the $94,000 zone, BTC has found support around this level, remaining in a key decision zone.

As the cryptocurrency market eagerly anticipates a move, new data from Alphractal highlights a crucial aspect of this anticipation: short-term holders (STHs) are nearing a key price zone, while leveraged positions have surpassed $10 billion.

STHs and a critical decision

As the red lines in the chart below show, when BTC trades significantly above the STH realized price, it often signals overheated conditions, especially when considering the magnitudes of the movements.

This is highlighted by the red arrows, which usually mark new highs in bull markets and are often followed by corrections. Conversely, the green arrows usually mark points where price either reclaimed or managed to hold above this level, highlighting bullish pivots or periods where STHs managed to accumulate at increasingly difficult price levels.

Currently, BTC is hovering just above the STH realized price, which is also the same level where we can observe a potential build-up of buying pressure, as the STH MVRV is approaching the neutral 1.0 level from below, a zone which is usually associated with either accumulation or impending upside volatility.

At the same time, we can observe that whenever the STH MVRV got close to this zone in the past, it was either a bottom or a major pivot.

BTC STH realized price and MVRV зависят от общей стоимости монет в кошельках, которые не держались в обращении в течение более чем 100 дней, и могут использоваться для оценки того, насколько прибыльными или убыточными в среднем являются STHs в данный момент времени.

A deeper analysis of the on-chain data reveals that the market is bracing for impact.

Both the realized cap impulse and the long-term realized cap impulse indicators are currently in low zones of support, which is something we haven’t seen in a few months.

As the chart below shows, historically, lower readings of these indicators, especially when they occur after periods of dormancy, have coincided with significant price expansions.

Finally, Open Interest tells its own story: leveraged positions remain highly elevated, recently crossing $70 billion. Such buildup usually precedes explosive moves, as either longs or shorts get liquidated all together.

The final stage of the current bull market

According to the latest data from Glassnode, the price of Bitcoin is now at a critical juncture as it hovers around the $92,500 mark.

At this point, bullish momentum is facing off against bearish resistance, and the market is tightly coiled and ready to snap in either direction.

As the chart above shows, after a recent pullback from the $94,000 zone, Bitcoin has found support around this level and remains in a key decision zone.

At the same time, the short-term holders (STHs) are nearing a critical price zone, and leveraged positions have surpassed $10 billion, which is something that usually occurs at market bottoms or major pivots.

STHs are usually defined as entities holding coins for less than 100 days, while the STH realized price is the average price at which STHs acquired their coins, which can be used to assess the STHs’ collective profitability.

When Bitcoin trades significantly above the STH realized price, it often signals overheated conditions, especially if we consider the magnitudes of the movements. This is highlighted by the red arrows in the chart above, which usually mark new highs in bull markets and are often followed by corrections.

Conversely, the green arrows usually mark points where the price either reclaimed or managed to hold above this level, highlighting bullish pivots or periods where STHs managed to accumulate at increasingly difficult price levels.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering just above the STH realized price, which is also the same level where we can observe a potential build-up of buying pressure, as the STH MVRV is approaching the neutral 1.0 level from below, a zone which is usually associated with either accumulation or impending upside volatility.

At the same time, we can observe that whenever the STH MVRV got close to this zone in the past, it was either a bottom or a major pivot.

The STH realized price and MVRV depend on the total value of coins in wallets that haven’t been used for more than 100 days and can be used to assess how profitable or unprofitable the STHs are on average at a given moment in time.