The recent Bitcoin (BTC) rally

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) rally has pushed it from $80k to $90k

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) rally has pushed it from $80k to $90k, flipping crypto market sentiment bullish. However, a closer look at BTC’s energy value suggests a fair Bitcoin price is $130k instead of where it currently trades – $90k, a whopping 40% discount.

According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin’s Energy Value is the “intrinsic value of Bitcoin as calculated by Joules of energy input only.” Based on this indicator, the fair value of Bitcoin price should be around $130k, but BTC’s price today trades at roughly $93k, which is a 40% discount.

“We are one year post Halving and Bitcoin is trading at a whopping 40% discount to its intrinsic value.”

Bitcoin Energy Value is at $130K. We are one year post Halving and Bitcoin is trading at a whopping 40% discount to its intrinsic value. pic.twitter.com/kbqTgTPp5d

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 25, 2025

While this is an interesting proposition, a better look at fair value is the average cost required to mine a BTC. Based on MicroMacro data, this value stands at $96k, just $3,000 higher the current price of $93k

Regardless of what is fair value, let’s explore Bitcoin technical analysis and what to expect next in the short and mid-term timeframes.

On a daily timeframe, there are three key value areas to note. These zones are where 68% of the volume was traded when Bitcoin price consolidated for long durations.

After the recent 20% rally in April, BTC is knocking on the lower limit of the $93k to $103k value area. If bulls manage to flip and hold above $93k, there is a good chance of price rotating back to the value area high of $103k.

On the other hand a rejection at 93k and reentry into the $81k to $88k zone will likely invalidate the recently created higher lows at $83k and revisit $81k. In a dire case, Bitcoin might look at the revisit the eight-month consolidation area where value extends from $70k to $60k. This is the third key value area.

The highest traded volume inside this range is around $65k, which many crypto analysts and traders expect to be the bottom should the uptrend fail to manifest.