Bitcoin (BTC) Ends Q1 2025 With 11.7% Loss, Its Worst Start to a Year Since 2015

This marks BTC's 12th place out of the past 15 first-quarter performances. Only the 2015 Q1 downturn fared worse, when the market was still reeling from the collapse of Mt. Gox

Bitcoin (BTC) began 2025 with an 11.7% loss in the first quarter, its weakest start to a year since 2015, according to NYDIG Research. As the second quarter commences, traders are closely monitoring key levels and macro developments amid renewed volatility.

This places BTC’s performance 12th out of the past 15 first-quarter performances. Only the 2015 Q1 downturn, which saw the market still recovering from the Mt. Gox collapse and the 2013 bull cycle peak, fared worse.

Tariffs and sell-offs cloud crypto outlook

President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs, announced last week, triggered a brutal sell-off in equities. The U.S. stock market lost $5.4 trillion in value over two sessions, pushing the S&P 500 to its lowest in 11 months. The Nasdaq 100 also slid into bear market territory.

The crypto market, which initially appeared to be decoupling, has begun to feel the pressure. While BTC remained afloat during the initial shock, the weekend saw flat movement, signaling no clear direction.

“It’s a fog of war now. No clear trend over the weekend,” said former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, adding that Monday’s opening of U.S. futures will be a key moment.

BTC nears support as traders sound caution

Technical analysts are keenly watching the $77,500 level. Jesse Colombo flagged it as “critical support.” Failure to hold could spark a sharp decline, he warned.

“We need to hold here or else 69-74k officially comes into play,” cautioned CrediBULL Crypto. He noted that Ethereum (ETH) and most altcoins have struggled to hold their ranges, indicating broader market fragility.

“If BTC breaks down, ETH likely revisits sub-$1,800,” he added, highlighting an orange zone of interest below current levels. For those looking for long-term spot entries, he suggested this zone as a possible accumulation range—but again, with caution.

Q1 declines often precede larger trends

Historically, Q1 losses in BTC have sent mixed signals. In 2020, Bitcoin dropped 9.4% in the first quarter but went on to rally over 300% by year-end. However, in 2014, 2018, and 2022—other years with negative Q1 returns—Bitcoin ended the year lower.

This year’s backdrop adds another layer of complexity. While the Trump administration has pulled back regulatory lawsuits against crypto firms and offered some clarity, the macro picture remains largely pessimistic. Rising recession risks and tighter monetary policy reduce the chances of a broad crypto rally in the short term.

Meanwhile, on-chain sentiment shows mixed signals. As Ali Martinez pointed out, 91,900 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges in the past month. This could indicate long-term confidence or a shift toward private custody amid market instability.

BTC volatility returns as new quarter begins

As the market opened on Monday, participants showed signs of defensive positioning. Although BTC remained above $70,000 over the weekend, price action remains largely indecisive.

With equities still facing pressure, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets could test its resilience this week.

Traders now face a technical and psychological battleground. If $77,500 fails to hold, attention will shift to the $69,000–$74,000 zone. Below that, some traders are eyeing a deeper reset unless buyers step in quickly.

And with tightening macro conditions, the next few sessions could set the tone for Q2. For now, BTC trades in a fragile range, and sentiment has turned cautious following its worst Q1 in 10 years.