Bitcoin (BTC) Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC's near-term outlook will depend on macroeconomic indicators and regulatory signals, including upcoming US jobs data, US tariff developments

Bitcoin's price dropped by 1.28% in the past 24 hours, as of 08:00 ET (12:00 GMT). The cryptocurrency was trading at $80,000, still recovering from recent losses that saw it fall below the $78k handle.

The cryptocurrency had been facing strong selling pressure in recent weeks, as broader market uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds weighed on risk appetite. BTC had dropped to a low of $76,642 on March 11, its lowest level since January 17.

While BTC had since rebounded somewhat, it remained in the midst of a bearish trend, trading below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). These levels are usually used to determine the direction of the current and upcoming trends.

A breakout above the 200-day EMA and the $86,263 resistance level could enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A move through the 50-day EMA could bring the $90,742 resistance level into play.

Conversely, if BTC breaks below $80k, the bears may target the March 11 low of $76,642. A fall through $76,642 could signal a drop toward the $73,641 support level.

BTC is trading at a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 43.96, signaling that it may drop further to March 11's low of $76,642 before entering oversold territory—RSI below 30.

For deeper insights on macro data, regulatory developments, and ETF market flows, follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto risks.

In other cryptocurrency news, a new report by the US Congress found that the Bitcoin Act, which aims to regulate Bitcoin as a commodity, had stalled in the Senate. The report, by the Congressional Research Service, also noted that the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies had become "highly volatile," and that ETF flows were being closely monitored by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Bitcoin Act, which was first introduced in 2021, would create a new regulatory framework for Bitcoin, classifying it as a commodity and placing it under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The bill would also establish a licensing regime for Bitcoin miners and exchanges.

The bill stalled in the Senate after facing opposition from some lawmakers, who argued that it would not provide sufficient consumer protection. The bill's supporters, including members of the House Financial Services Committee, maintained that the bill was necessary to provide clarity and stability to the cryptocurrency market.

The report also noted that the price of Bitcoin had become "highly volatile" in recent months, swinging wildly in response to macroeconomic uncertainty, US tariff developments, and the Fed's policy stance.

Bitcoin had soared to a record high of nearly $80k in early 2023, but it has since lost more than 20% of its value. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $70k, a level that could provide some support in the near term.

Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well over the past few years, rising more than 1,000% since the start of 2020. This move has seen BTC rally to levels not seen since the height of the bull market in 2021.

The report concluded that the Bitcoin Act's progress, ETF flows, and upcoming US jobs data were among the key drivers that would shape BTC's near-term outlook.

"With BTC now trading at the 200-day EMA, a breakout could open the door for a move toward the 50-day EMA," the report said. "However, if BTC drops below $80k, the next support level to watch is March 11's low of $76,642."

"A fall through $76,642 could signal a drop toward $73,641."

"An RSI reading below 30 would signal that BTC is oversold."

"In the meantime, keep an eye on macroeconomic indicators, regulatory signals, and ETF market flows for deeper insights into BTC's price movements."

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