Bitcoin (BTC) Price Movement Continues to Defy Traditional Market Patterns as the Cryptocurrency Approaches All-Time Highs

Bitcoin's price movement continues to defy traditional market patterns as the cryptocurrency approaches record highs despite unusual underlying conditions.

Bitcoin's price (BTC) movement continues to defy traditional market patterns as the cryptocurrency approaches record highs despite unusual underlying conditions and trading volumes drop to their lowest levels since the start of the current market cycle.

The digital asset touched $110,400 on June 12 before pulling back to $108,800 by 07:00 ET on Wednesday. It remains within striking distance of its all-time high near $112,000 set on May 9.

At the same time, retail investor activity remained subdued across most platforms.

Exchange Holdings Hit 14-Month Low

Centralized exchange holdings have seen a sharp decline throughout 2025. Since January, the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges dropped 14% to just 2.5 million BTC.

This marks the lowest level of exchange-held Bitcoin since August 2022.

The decline in exchange balances signals investors are transferring coins into hardware wallets or custodial services for long-term holding. It also reduces the liquid supply available for immediate sale.

As of June 11, exchange outflows outpaced inflows by a factor of 2.5. This imbalance suggests a sustained trend of investors withdrawing coins from exchanges.

The chart above shows exchange balances fell to their lowest point since August 2022. They are now approaching the lows reached during the 2021 bull market.

At the start of 2024, exchanges held around 3.7 million BTC. This amount has decreased by 32% over the past 18 months.

The rate of exchange balance depletion increased sharply in January. This coincides with the beginning of the current bull market cycle.

Over-the-Counter Liquidity Drops

Over-the-counter trading desks are also experiencing supply constraints. These platforms, which facilitate large off-exchange trades, maintain Bitcoin reserves to enable quick execution of transactions.

Current OTC reserves have reached historic lows according to CryptoQuant data. OTC addresses connected to mining operations have seen balances drop 19% since January.

These addresses now hold just 134,252 BTC in total.

The data excludes direct miner addresses and centralized exchange holdings. It focuses on addresses one step removed from mining pools, providing insight into OTC market liquidity.

When both exchange and OTC liquidity decrease simultaneously, the available trading supply shrinks. This dynamic can amplify price movements as demand competes for fewer available coins.

Funding Rates Go Negative

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets recently went negative while Bitcoin's price continued increasing. This creates an unusual market dynamic that has historically preceded major price moves.

Funding rates represent periodic payments between long and short position holders in futures contracts. Positive rates indicate bullish sentiment as long traders pay short traders. Negative rates suggest short trader dominance.

When negative funding coincides with rising spot prices, it indicates strong underlying demand. The spot market absorbs selling pressure from short positions while prices continue climbing.

This pattern has appeared three times during the current market cycle. Each instance was followed by substantial price increases. The most recent occurrence happened between June 6-8 as Bitcoin moved from $104,000 to $110,000.

Technical Analysis Shows Breakout

Chart analysis reveals Bitcoin broke out of a flag pattern formation earlier this week. Flag patterns typically indicate continuation of existing trends after brief consolidation periods.

The breakout provides a technical foundation for further price gains. The relative strength index shows bullish momentum while remaining below overbought territory.

Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average last month. This golden cross formation often signals sustained upward momentum in technical analysis.

Price projections based on the flag pattern breakout suggest a target around $137,000. This calculation uses the height of the preceding uptrend and projects it from the breakout point.

The first key resistance level sits at $112,000, near the previous all-time high. A break above this level could accelerate movement toward the projected target.

Support levels during any pullback are identified at $107,000 and $100,000. The $107,000 level corresponds to previous peaks from December and January. The $100,000 level represents both a psychological round number and a technical trendline dating back to November.

Current market conditions show Bitcoin futures open interest is hovering near record highs while spot supply continues tightening across all major trading venues.