Bitcoin (BTC) Is Headed for a Significant Downturn, Analyst Warns

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) is solidifying its position above the $60,000 support zone, a cryptocurrency analyst has warned that the maiden digital asset is headed

A cryptocurrency analyst has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for a major downturn, presenting a pessimistic outlook for the world’s leading digital asset.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is likely to crash and form a significant low in the coming months. This period will be characterized by high volatility if the asset continues to trade below the $70,000 level, as highlighted by Alan Santana in a TradingView post on September 25.

Santana's analysis focuses on the technical challenges that Bitcoin has faced since reaching an all-time high of $74,000 in March 2024. He points to a powerful bearish signal that emerged in early March, with the highest daily bearish volume seen in years on March 5, foreshadowing the market's downward trajectory.

This downward trend has remained intact, with Bitcoin forming a series of lower highs until it ultimately crashed in early August. Santana emphasizes that this bearish structure remains, leaving little room for optimism unless key levels are breached.

The descending triangle formation on Bitcoin's chart is a crucial pattern that contributes to Santana's bearish stance. This formation, which often indicates further downside, has raised concerns of a breakout to lower levels. According to Santana, the potential severity of the decline shows Bitcoin possibly falling as low as the $30,000 range.

However, Santana suggests two scenarios that could shift Bitcoin into bullish territory. The first would be a breakout above $71,000, which would invalidate much of the current downward momentum. The second scenario would involve Bitcoin producing a new low with reduced selling volume and oversold indicators, signaling that a bottom may be near. In either case, Santana stresses that Bitcoin will need to show clearer signs of reversal before any optimism can take hold.

The expert adds that Bitcoin is likely to produce one major low before beginning any meaningful recovery, with crash timelines set for September or November 2024, depending on market conditions.

“We continue 100% bearish on Bitcoin as long as it trades below $70,000/$71,000 on the weekly/monthly close... Bitcoin is set to crash and produce one major low. It can happen now, September 2024, or later in November 2024,” wrote Santana.

Meanwhile, while Santana foresees a possible downturn for Bitcoin, the expert believes an opportunity might be opening in the altcoin market. As reported by Finbold, Santana noted that small-cap altcoins have turned bullish since they have already hit their bottom, unlike Bitcoin.

In an X post on September 25, crypto trading expert Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture with the asset facing potential price movement in both directions.

According to Martinez, data indicates Bitcoin's most critical support zone is at $63,300 as it marks the level where the largest accumulation of realized transactions occurred. At this level, over 500,000 BTC were transacted. Therefore, if Bitcoin maintains this key support, the asset could target $65,500.

However, a failure to hold $63,300 may result in a downward move toward $60,365, where approximately 314,000 BTC were transacted, marking the next potential support level.

Bitcoin was trading at $63,650 at press time, reflecting gains of about 0.7% in the last 24 hours. Over the past seven days, BTC is up almost 7%.

Overall, Bitcoin is showing a strong bullish trend as it sits above both the 50-day SMA ($59,657) and the 200-day SMA ($61,683). This indicates positive momentum in both the short and long term. Therefore, as long as the crypto sustains the price above these values, there is room for further growth.