Bitcoin (BTC) Enters Third Phase of Its Cycle: What Does This Mean?

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency, just reentered the "orange" phase of its price cycle based on the SMA Multiplier chart.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is trading closer than ever to the coveted $100,000 price level. While some are convinced that the markets are already overheated, researchers at CryptoQuant are explaining why the peak might be much further away. Here's why the situation might be mirroring the cautious optimism of Q2 2020.

Bitcoin (BTC) Enters Third Phase of Cycle: What Does This Mean?

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency by creation, has just entered the "orange" phase of its price cycle again, according to the SMA Multiplier chart.

With this, BTC has now moved into the third stage of its rally out of the eight stages registered in previous years, as pointed out by Axel Adler, a community expert at CryptoQuant.

The orange dot has arrived.

Red, purple, blue, navy, and black - is coming. pic.twitter.com/PSKIPishmE

The model, as explained by the speaker, takes the four-year (1,458-day) simple moving average of daily BTC prices and calculates the ratio between the current price and SMA1458, which is then called the SMA Multiplier.

To visualize how "early we are still," the model then maps each multiplier to a different color range: Green (<1.5), Yellow (1.5-2), Orange (2-2.5), and more. In each cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) moves through the green, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, navy, and black "zones."

At current sub-$100,000 prices, Bitcoin (BTC) is seen to be in the "orange zone" on the logarithmic scale.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju confirms that the model is valid for the ongoing cycle, which is net bullish for Bitcoiners.

Bitcoin cyclical top still has a long way to go.

This rhymes with late Q3 2019 and Q2 2020 when Bitcoin was trying to conquer the 10K level.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Discovery Patterns Hint At Seven-Digit Levels

On the "descending" pattern, Bitcoin (BTC) entered similar zones just before the crash of the Terra/Luna ecosystem in May 2022.

Yesterday, Nov. 22, Bitcoin (BTC) hit another all-time high over $99,600 on major spot exchanges, as reported by CoinGecko.

Recently, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared two "parabolic" scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC) price discovery in this run.

#Bitcoin parabolic bull scenario during price discovery https://t.co/ARK79Kz2ti pic.twitter.com/VPi0mFZXmz

If the run were to follow the 2017 pattern, it would put $1.15 million as the target price for Bitcoin (BTC). A more conservative 2020 pattern hints at $262,000 as the maximum.