Bitcoin (BTC) Drops Below the 200-Day MA, Raising Concerns About a Deeper Pullback

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 11.3% over the past week

Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped 11.3% over the past week and now trades in the low $80,000 range. The recent decline has pushed the leading cryptocurrency below the 200-day moving average (MA), raising concerns about a potential deeper pullback.

According to an X post by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, BTC is currently trading below the 200-day MA, a key price level that has historically functioned as a strong support for the top digital asset.

For the uninitiated, the 200-day MA is a famous technical indicator that essentially represents the average closing price of BTC over the last 200 days to identify the long-term price trend. According to Martinez, a sustained movement above the 200-day MA has led to long-term uptrends while a prolonged price movement below the level has often preceded further declines.

Martinez further stressed that BTC must remain above the TD Sequential indicator’s risk line at $79,280. According to the analyst, if the price drops below this level, it could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency.

However, if BTC manages to stay above the risk line and the 200-day MA, and if the buyers manage to maintain control, it could set the stage for a strong rebound to the upside.

Potential For BTC Recovery

The potential for a BTC recovery was also discussed by another crypto analyst, Ted, in a post on X. As highlighted by Ted, over the past two years, BTC has frequently undergone 25% to 30% corrections before rebounding to new all-time highs (ATHs).

This pattern was evident in both 2022 and 2023. For instance, in 2023, BTC went from $30K to $22K during a 25% correction before continuing its upward trajectory.

Similarly, in 2024, BTC experienced a 30% correction as it dropped from $74K to $50K. After each correction, the cryptocurrency experienced a strong rebound, eventually leading to new ATHs.

If BTC follows a similar pattern and climbs 30% from its current price, it could reach approximately $104,000 in a short period. However, broader macroeconomic factors – such as US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy – could significantly impact BTC’s trajectory.

BTC Needs To Reclaim $84,000 First

In another post on X, Martinez focused on BTC’s potential path to a new ATH, highlighting that BTC must first reclaim $84,000 as a support level. Once this milestone is secured, the digital asset could rally toward $128,000.

Several indicators suggest that BTC may have already found a local bottom, increasing the chances of a trend reversal. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently noted that BTC’s plunge to $78,258 could mark the cycle low.

Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has just recorded one of its largest weekly breakdowns since 2013, a move that historically signals bullish momentum for risk-on assets like BTC.

At press time, BTC trades at $80,137, down 3.5% in the past 24 hours.