Bitcoin (BTC) needs to close the week above $81,000 to avoid further downside: Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 3% during the past week, to trade above $83,748 as of 9:33 a.m. in UTC, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 3% during the past week, to trade above $83,748 as of 9:33 a.m. in UTC, Coin GPT Markets Pro data shows.

Bitcoin price continues to risk significant downside volatility due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty around global trade tariffs, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Coin GPT

Closing the week above $81,000 will be key to avoid more Bitcoin downside, the analyst told Coin GPT, adding:

The analyst's comments come days ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is scheduled for Monday, March 19.

According to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady.

Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

The outcome of the meeting may significantly impact Bitcoin investor sentiment, said Lee, adding:

“Even a dovish surprise, like a rate cut, might not be the immediate boost some are hoping for, as investors are still weighing macro-economic cues and tariffs.”

A weekly close above $85,000 may inspire more investor confidence and lead to the next breakout, according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken real-world asset tokenization platform.

The market analyst told Coin GPT:

The market expert noted that the short-term momentum in Bitcoin may be limited by the upcoming economic releases, such as the announced increases in US tariffs on Chinese goods and the pending decision on the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extension.

However, on the long term, the regulatory developments around Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan may gradually bring more market optimism and mass adoption, Cardozo added.

Trump’s Bitcoin reserve came one step closer to fruition on March 14, after US Representative Byron Donalds (R-FL) introduced a bill that seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.

The bill, titled "Safeguard and Maintain the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile Act of 2024," would require Congress to approve any administrative action to liquidate or alter the reserve.

It is pertinent to note that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which was enacted as part of the CARES Act in 2020, is set to expire at the end of March.

In addition to the PPP, which provides forgivable loans to small businesses to help them keep their employees on payroll, the CARES Act also established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile.

The legislation directs the Treasury Secretary to purchase up to $1 billion in BTC to be held in a non-inflationary, highly liquid, and easily realizable asset class.

However, the administration of President Joe Biden has no plans to add crypto to the government’s balance sheet, despite the House of Representatives voting to include an amendment to a bill that would mandate the administration to invest in Bitcoin.

The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment — the bill has a chance of passing.