Bitcoin (BTC) Appears to Be Locked in a Mini Bear Market

Bitcoin BTC/USD appears to be locked in a mini bear market, with weak technical signals, fading momentum, and a lack of fresh catalysts weighing heavily on price action

Bitcoin BTC/USD appears to be locked in a mini bear market, with weak technical signals, fading momentum, and a lack of fresh catalysts weighing heavily on price action, according to a Tuesday market note from 10x Research.

What Happened: In the report, the firm said Bitcoin is currently trading below its key trend model level of $88,000 — an indicator they consider crucial for gauging bull versus bear cycles.

"There’s little doubt from on-chain data that Bitcoin is in at least a mini-bear market,” 10x Research said, adding that without a turnaround in momentum, “that remains the base case.”

While some short-term technical indicators briefly hinted at a relief rally, the bounce stalled at $88,500 and has since reversed.

Bitcoin is also still below its 21-week moving average, a widely-used long-term trend signal.

One of the firm’s most reliable metrics — the short-term holder realized price, now near $93,000 — has acted as stiff resistance.

The rejection at this level suggests traders are exiting breakeven positions, further reinforcing bearish pressure.

On-chain data also supports this cautious outlook.

Funding rates remain depressed, signaling reduced risk appetite, while retail investor activity has plummeted — particularly after losses in meme tokens like Trump TRUMP/USD.

“Confidence took a major hit when retail lost billions,” the report noted, with exchange listings near peak prices providing exit liquidity for insiders.

ETF outflows have now continued for a second consecutive month. Hedge funds that previously executed arbitrage trades using Bitcoin ETFs are pulling back due to low funding rates.

“Without a meaningful rise in funding rates, it’s unlikely ETF inflows return to their former strength,” 10x explained.

The broader macro environment offers little comfort either. While market hopes are pinned on a potential Fed rate cut by June, 10x believes it’s more likely to be delayed until September due to sticky inflation and resilient labor data.

“Bitcoin is looking for real action — not just dovish talk,” the note emphasized.

Political developments have also failed to ignite momentum. Despite Trump’s efforts to boost sentiment — such as announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve — these moves lack legislative backing.

“Holding confiscated Bitcoins doesn’t create buying pressure,” the report said, suggesting that much of the recent crypto optimism has been narrative-driven rather than supported by fundamentals.

Why It Matters: Despite the bearish tone, the firm sees relative strength in Bitcoin compared to altcoins, many of which are underperforming sharply.

Their proprietary model combining total crypto market cap and Bitcoin dominance confirms this trend.

Notably, Tron TRX/USD and Toncoin TON/USD have stood out for showing resilience in a weak market, potentially due to favorable geopolitical positioning.

In the near term, 10x expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $73,000 and $94,000.

“Volatility is likely,” they said, recommending selling options strategies — such as puts or calls — depending on whether price moves toward the lower or upper end of that range.

Unless a clear macro shift or bullish catalyst emerges, the outlook remains muted.

“The current market structure is fragile,” the analysts said, suggesting that their view that Bitcoin is now in a confirmed mini bear market.