Arthur Hayes Outlines His Bullish ETH Thesis, Predicting a Move to $10,000

In a macro-focused interview with the Bankless podcast, Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO and current Maelstrom CIO, laid out his bullish thesis on Ethereum, arguing that a move to $10,000 or even $15,000 is a realistic outcome as global liquidity shifts and capital controls take hold in the next monetary regime.

In a macro-focused interview with the Bankless podcast, former BitMEX CEO and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes outlined his bullish thesis on Ethereum, arguing that a move to $10,000 or even $15,000 is a realistic outcome as global liquidity shifts and capital controls take hold in the next monetary regime.

Asked why ETH had rallied over 50% in a week, Hayes dismissed technical triggers and pointed instead to sentiment. The most hated asset goes up the fastest in the next cycle, he said. It’s just human nature.

For Hayes, the Ethereum comeback was long overdue after years of being overshadowed by Solana and other high-beta tokens. ETH was kind of dead. Everyone hated it. The BTC/ETH ratio was falling, Solana was running … it was time.

Why Ethereum Could Soar To $10,000

Despite not having added to his position, Hayes said he remained long Ethereum and was unfazed by the current price. It’s great it’s going up, but okay—let’s talk at $10,000 or $15,000. Let’s talk when it’s meaningful.

Hayes placed Ethereum’s rebound in the broader context of what he calls a global monetary phase shift—a transition away from the US Treasury as the world’s reserve asset, toward a bifurcated system where store-of-value flows increasingly shift toward gold and Bitcoin. In this paradigm, Ethereum benefits not just from speculative risk flows, but also from structural changes in how capital moves under increasing financial repression and capital controls.

While he reiterated his belief that gold and Bitcoin are the two neutral reserve assets in a politically fractured world, Hayes sees Ethereum as a powerful high-beta trade in the coming wave of liquidity expansion. They print the money, he said bluntly. And the consequence will be gold and Bitcoin going through the roof.

Still, Ethereum’s path won’t be linear. Hayes acknowledged ETH’s underperformance versus Bitcoin so far, but suggested that ETH’s moment is coming—particularly if regulatory clarity improves or if decentralized finance regains traction with sustainable cash flows. He singled out projects like EtherFi and Pendle as examples of token ecosystems that might finally justify valuation through fundamentals.

The potential for Ethereum to outperform dramatically remains, Hayes argued, especially as the market continues to digest what he sees as the beginning of the end for the 50-year US Treasury-based global financial system. If you want to preserve access to capital and spend it how you want, the only things you can own are gold and Bitcoin, he said. But for the investor with appetite for asymmetry, ETH is a hard slog now—yet still in the early stages of what could be a runaway rally.

Whether Ethereum reaches the $10,000 mark in 2025 or beyond, Hayes is positioning for that outcome. Mailstream is about 60% Bitcoin, 20% ETH and then you know a lot of other shitcoins and term sheets of token deals and stuff. On my non-crypto stuff, it’s physical gold and gold miners and T bills. That’s it, Hayes concluded.